A Buenos Aires court ordered a nationwide blockade of Polymarket. Reason? The platform allegedly operates as an illegal cryptocurrency-based online betting system – without the required licenses and without any user verification. Argentina is another country that blocks Polymarket.
Predictive markets are clearly in the crosshairs of national regulators in various parts of the world. Is this a sign of a larger crisis, or perhaps a temporary consequence of popularity?
Polymarket in Argentina, or judge versus blockchain
The decision was made by judge Susana Parada. The order obliges internet service providers to block access to the website throughout Argentina. Moreover, Google and Apple were obliged to remove or limit access to the platform’s mobile applications. The case came to light following a complaint from the Buenos Aire Gambling Regulatory Authority, which alleged that Polymarket was operating in the jurisdiction without any authorization. The national lottery authorities have confirmed – the platform is not licensed in Argentina.
Prosecutors pointed out that the website allowed accounts to be set up in a matter of minutes – all without identity or age verification. This meant that minors could freely participate in the markets without any control. A simple argument, but very effective in the eyes of the court.
Inflation, insider trading and suspicious volume
The case was further heated by reports of suspicious trading activity linked to Argentine inflation data. Shortly before the official release of February data, trading volume in the inflation contract increased to approximately $91,000. Some observers considered this a signal of a potential information leak. No formal charges were filed, but the spark had already been struck.
A global wave of restrictions
Regulators around the world are grappling with the same question: Are prediction markets financial instruments or disguised gambling platforms? The answer determines the entire regulatory path and, as you can see, more and more often the second option is chosen.
The USA is also in the game
Even in the United States, Polymarket is not at peace. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has announced work on a federal regulatory framework for predictive markets, while some states are actively targeting sector leaders, both Polymarket and Kalshi.
All these reports indicate that the industry is in the crosshairs. A sector that promised decentralized, censorship-resistant forecasting of the future is increasingly colliding with the hard wall of traditional regulations. And so far, regulators are winning this bet.
