Bitcoin has been testing $78,000 for a week and still cannot break $80,000. This is no coincidence – there are four specific events hanging over the market that will either unlock BTC higher or push it back to 70,000 in the next two weeks. I describe what to watch and why it matters for your portfolio.
Let’s start with the context. Bitcoin rose nearly 3 percent to $78,700 in the last 24 hours, continuing its rebound as risk appetite returned to markets along with optimism around talks with Iran. Sounds good – but the same story has already played out four times in the last two months. Each time, BTC approached 80,000 and retreated.
Why is 80,000 such a wall? Because this is the level at which Bitcoin was in November 2025, before it started falling. BTC broke this level lower on February 2 and touched bottom at $60,000 within four days due to the forced liquidation of hedge funds. From then on, every attempt to rebuild ended below this zone. The psychology of the market is simple: whoever bought above 80,000 wants to break even at the first opportunity. And that’s why every approach to this level generates supply.
To break this resistance permanently, either a strong macro impulse or a clear institutional signal is needed. And in the next two weeks there will be as many as four of these signals.
Iran and oil prices – it’s happening now
This is the biggest geopolitical variable in months. Iran sent a new peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan on May 1, and U.S. crude oil contracts fell by almost 5 percent, with the price of Brent falling to $107 a barrel after reaching a four-year high a few weeks earlier. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with about 20 percent of global oil flowing through it.
The mechanism is direct: expensive oil drives up inflation, inflation blocks the Fed from cutting rates, high rates choke risky assets such as crypto. And vice versa – when oil becomes cheaper, the entire chain works in the opposite direction. During previous temporary ceasefires, Bitcoin showed an 85% correlation with the Nasdaq index during oil price spikes, confirming that it trades like a high-beta risky asset.
If the peace talks are successful and Brent falls below $90, Bitcoin has the green light to rebound. If negotiations break down, we go back to the $70,000 scenario.
Strategy quarterly results – May 5
Strategy – Michael Saylor’s company with 818,000 bitcoins on its balance sheet – reports Q1 2026 results on Tuesday. Q1 was Strategy’s worst quarter since the conflict with Iran broke out – Bitcoin crashed to $62,000 in February and stayed below $75,000 throughout the quarter, meaning huge paper losses on the BTC stack.
However, the market does not ask about losses – because Saylor has repeatedly explained that his company will never sell. The market is asking one thing: will Strategy continue to buy? The previous purchase on April 22 – 34,164 bitcoins for $2.54 billion – was the largest since 2024 and shot the stock to an 11-week high. If the results for Q1 show further purchases or a new bond issue for BTC, for me the signal is clear: smart money is still accumulating.
Changing of the guard at the Fed – May 15
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to officially take over as Fed chairman on May 15, when Jerome Powell ends his term. JP Morgan believes that Warsh will push for rate cuts faster than his predecessor – because Warsh publicly called the jump in inflation in 2022 the biggest mistake of Fed policy in four decades.
For Bitcoin, the mechanism is as follows: Warsh will not change rates overnight, but his rhetorical tone will influence the dollar before the Fed even votes. A weaker dollar is historically one of the strongest environments for BTC. In my opinion, the signals coming from the new Fed head – before any formal decision – may be what is needed for Bitcoin to get out of the $80,000 trap.
Inflows into ETFs continue all the time
April was the best month for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025. During the first three weeks of April, $2.44 billion net flowed into funds – the strongest monthly performance in over six months. Institutions have returned to buying – and this is a qualitative change, not a momentary whim.
There is fuel. The spark is missing. Analysts indicate that at the $80,000 level there will be a huge concentration of leveraged short positions. A break through this level at the daily close may trigger a domino effect – forced repurchase of shorts, which itself pushes the price higher. That’s why so many traders are waiting for this one signal – and why I also closely follow each of the above four events.
My assessment of the situation
If you’re watching the market and wondering if it’s a good time – ask yourself a simpler question: does any of the above four events change the fundamental investment thesis in Bitcoin? Neither Strategy’s results, nor the change at the Fed, nor the negotiations with Iran touch on what Bitcoin is – a decentralized network with a limited supply of 21 million coins. All four are macro noise that affects price in the short term.
