Tuesday inflationary data caused real euphoria on financial markets. Bitcoin has again tested the historical maxim, Ethereum breaks records in ranges to ETFs, and investors focus on the upcoming cycle of interest rates. Is this the beginning of a new bull market on the cryptocurrency market?
Inflation data reassures the fears of the duties, the market values 96% of the probability of the reduction in September
Key conclusions from the week:
- Basic inflation increased slightly above the forecasts, but without a negative surprise
- Bitcoin consolidates around USD 115 – 120,000, Ethereum breaks the level of USD 4,700 and is still close to the new ATH
- The domination of BTC is falling, which can signal the upcoming altseason
Inflation no longer scares investors
Tuesday inflationary data brought relief to financial markets. Although base inflation increased slightly above expectations, the main inflation rate remained at a forecast level. The crucial for the market was that the prices of goods turned out to be lower than the predictionsespecially in terms of introduced customs.
The increase in inflation resulted mainly from the service sector, which analysts bind to economic recovery after obtaining greater clarity in the matter of customs. The lack of a significant impact of customs tariffs on inflation gives a federal reserve space for interest rate reduction in September.
The probability of cutting feet in September increased dramatically – from 57.4% a month ago to the current 96.4%.
Pigeon rhetoric Fed is gaining momentum
The last weeks have brought signals indicating the pigeon’s focus of the central bank. The nomination of Stephan Mirana for a vacant position in the Fed and comments of the President of the FED from Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, suggest the possibility of 2-3 rate discounts this year.
Kashkari emphasized that The inflation effects of customs duties can only be revealed in many monthsand even quarters. In his opinion, it is better to respond to current data showing the weakness of the labor market than to wait for the uncertain effects of customs tariffs.
What’s more, the political pressure on the reduction of interest rates in the US is also growing. We registered and discussed the recent statement of Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the US Treasury, who openly urges the federal reserve to start a cycle of reductions.
Bitcoin and Altcoins are gaining strength
Positive macroeconomic moods translate into increases on the cryptocurrency market:
Bitcoin He returned to the summit of his range at the level of 124 thousand. USD, and now he has a small correction after reaching a new ATH.
Ethereum He pierced the key resistance to USD 4,200 and achieved new local maxima above USD 4,600. Institutional purchases drive further increases – Bitmine has submitted an application to extend the PLN 20 billion to buy ETH.
Is “Altseason” coming?
Technical indicators suggest a possible change in the trend in favor of the Altcoins:
- Domination of Bitcoin fell below 60% and is headed for 57%
- ETH/BTC pair pierced up on a 3-day chart
- Total3 (capitalization without BTC and ETH) oscillates above USD 1 trillion
Punction of USD 1.13 trillion by Total3 can mean the beginning of a wider Altcoin rally.
Strategy for the coming months
In the current macroeconomic environment, experts recommend:
- Maintaining the position in the main cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE)
- Selective investment in memecoins with strong foundations and high market capitalization
- Profit rotation From the last winners (ETH) for strong projects in consolidation (e.g. Link)
Analysts predict that The coming months will bring an extremely favorable environment for cryptocurrencieswith a series of interest rate reductions lasting at least until the first quarter of 2026.
