BTC ETFs currently hold 976,893 bitcoins worth over $66.2 billion. That’s almost 5% of the cryptocurrency’s $1.34 trillion market capitalization. Therefore, an additional 23,107 bitcoins are enough to achieve the milestone – 1 million BTC under the management of ETFs. For this to be successful this week, it is enough for the funds to buy coins worth USD 301 million per day.
However, Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, points out something else: “the most important factor determining” whether the cryptocurrency market will start to grow or not is Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. The Republican’s success is expected to mean that we will see BTC for USD 100,000 this year.
What do polls tell us about the situation in the US? Not much: in the most important swing states, neither Trump nor Kamala Harris has an advantage that would make one or the other party confident of success. Supporters of the first candidate console themselves with the fact that his result may be underestimated in public opinion polls, so in practice he has a significant advantage, which can be seen in bookmakers. We will find out the truth on November 5.
The next interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for November 7, and the market expects a cut of 25 basis points, which would potentially bring the rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Currently, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields are rising, but a rate cut would improve overall macroeconomic liquidity, potentially strengthening cryptocurrency assets.
Microsoft has proposed the purchase of BTC, which is an important potential factor stimulating the market, currently awaiting approval by the management board. If this proposal is accepted, it will be very beneficial for the market.
Ethereum Foundation sells ETH on a weekly basis, creating constant selling pressure that could negatively impact overall market sentiment.
At a 70% confidence level, BTC is expected to trade in the range of around $66,000-75,000 and ETH in the range of $2,350-3,200. If liquidity improves, it may be worth monitoring potential activity in altcoins.
