Historical four -year Bitcoin cycles no longer apply? It is possible that in 2026 we will observe increases! At least, that’s what Raoul Pal thinks, who pointed to macroeconomic factors that can drive further increases.
Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2026.
Today, we hear more and more often that the bitcoin bitcoin will soon end. Reason? Cyclicality, which suggests the end of increases in the fourth quarter of this year. The Bitcoin course broke down in similar periods in previous cycles.
Only that macroeconomics can thwart the supporters of this theory of chic. Investor Raoul Pal claims that macroeconomic events are currently affecting the entire market.
In his opinion, it is worth paying attention to interest rates. On “Main Street” consumers and small companies face high interest rates, and thus limited budgets. Meanwhile, institutions from Wall Street gain on growing profitability of bonds and transaction fees. In the case of Bitcoin, however, something else is more important. Smooth and institutional flows are more important than the pressure from retail clients.
The above confirms what the giants are doing: Ark Invest Cathie Wood has recently purchased bitcoins worth USD 37.7 million. Large whale accumulation is also often seen as a positive indicator for the cycle.
Interest rates are key
Note to the fact that over the past two years the Bitcoin course has grown at high percentage rates, which are only now reduced. The reduction process should drive further increases. In addition, in 2026, the Fed’s successor Jerome Powell, who until now pursued a cautious policy and prevented the cutting of the feet. The successor to be indicated by Donald Trump will certainly implement a policy that is consistent with what the White House wants. And this means a reduction in percentage rates that should drive increases in risky asset markets.
According to the valuation of the Fed Watch Tool, we will see two discounts by the end of the year – 25 PB each (50 PB in total).
