The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing one of the most important moments in its history. Bitcoin in mid -July 2025 is about USD 119,000, which means a spectacular increase from about 70,000 dollars less than a year ago. At the same time, we are observing the first signs of what investors have been waiting for for months – the potential beginning of the Altcoin season.
Macroeconomic data inhibit the expectations of foot reductions
The key inflation data from this week provided mixed signals for financial markets. The monthly base inflation was 0.2%, which was slightly below expectations thanks to the milder increase in the service sector. At the same time, acceleration in the category of basic goods was noted – the first sign that the duties effects are beginning to penetrate the inflation data.
The result of this data was an increase in bond yield, especially at the short end of the curve. In practice, this means that the market reduces the likelihood of interest rate reduction in the near future. The chances of cutting feet in July fell from 6.2% to just 2.6%. What’s more significant, the probability of a reduction in September decreased from 65.8% to 50.8% – so here we have practically a draw among betting investors.
These changes in monetary expectations are an important context for further movements on the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin and Altcoin did better in the environment of decreasing interest rates that increase the attractiveness of more risky assets. Although Donald Trump was to press Jerome Powell on the resignation, yesterday in an interview for journalists he said that he would not resign. The situation is therefore unresolved, but the markets do not seem to worry about it at the moment.
Anatomy of a recent Bitcoin breaking – strength or weakness?
Bitcoin’s breaking level $ 110 700 had a solid technical foundation. The cryptocurrency built support on the upper limit of the falling wedge, which led to the price to catapulting towards the zone $ 120-123 thousand. Achieving the level of $ 123,200 confirms earlier target analyzes, especially the key psychological resistance of USD 125,000.
From the perspective of technical indicators, RSI is currently in the purchase zone, and between 114 300 and 115 700 dollars there is a CME gap, which can act as support in the case of correction. A positive signal is Bitcoin consolidation between $ 116-121 thousand in recent days, which promotes weakening and the already overheated RSI indicator.
Foundations of breaking – strengths and weaknesses
Positive aspects:
- Significant inflows for bitcoin ETFs that helped in the initial breaking of resistance $ 110-112 thousand
- Strong institutional support for upward movement
Negative aspects:
- The burst was significantly supported by one of the largest short positions in the history of the liquidation
- Low transaction volumes that raise doubts about the healthy nature of the break
It is worth remembering, however, that we are in the summer, which traditionally is characterized by lower turnover. It will be crucial to watch if the volumes will start to grow in the coming days, especially if the price correction occurs.
An additional warning signal, although still in the early stage, is the increase in the activity of long -term Bitcoin owners. Based on the analysis of the historical chart, time and halving, these indicators may suggest that the peak of the current cycle may fall at the end of the year.
The valuation models indicate further upward potential
The MVRV Pricing Bands record shows that the Bitcoin price is just above the +0.5 standard deviation line. In recent years, Bitcoin has repeatedly approached the level of +1.0 standard deviation (pink line), which is currently $ 138,000. Experts predict that Bitcoin can reach USD 130-150 thousand by the end of 2025, powered by institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
The first signs of Altseason on the horizon
The growing signs of the start of the Altcoin season are the most exciting for the wide cryptocurrency market. Several key indicators confirm this thesis:
ETH/BTC pair – a key narrative change indicator
Ethereum in relation to Bitcoin set the first higher hole on the weekly chart, reaching the bottom at a similar level to the absolute minimum of 2019. It is now possible and desirable to continue the upward trend in the ETH/BTC, which historically leads to the break of other main altcoins.
Bitcoin’s domination loses strength
The domination of BTC at a three-day interval lost its main growth trend line and is currently piercing down. This is a positive signal suggesting that we are potentially in the early stages of the Altcoin season. Ethereum, which is the second largest cryptoachene, has lost its popularity among many investors, but the situation may change quickly, because now he shakes the losses from recent months.
Total3 – capitalization outside Bitcoin and Ether
The Total3 indicator, representing the total market capitalization outside Bitcoin and Ethereum, has particularly promising signs. After maintaining the support levels between $ 784-807 billion, the indicator broke the downward trend line and regained the key resistance of $ 930 billion.
This movement is extremely positive for the wide market. The next goal will be consolidation above $ 930 billion, transforming this resistance into new support, and then striving to the level of $ 1.13 trillion. His puncture will mean the beginning of a great altseason. Watch!
Prospects until the end of the year. Optimism with caution
The current market situation looks extremely favorable. Bitcoin broke the new historical maxima, and the Altcoin market shows signs of readiness for its own break. The most optimistic forecasts come from reputable financial institutions. The British investment bank Standard Khartered intends to invest large funds in the cryptocurrency market, and ETFs from Blackrock and Fidelity are leading in institutional demand to the crypto-active.
Bitcoin consolidation at new historical maxima usually leads to strong growth movements in the rest of the market within the so -called “catching trade”. The analysis of indicators and charts suggests that this type of scenario is also very likely this time.
Base scenario
Market expectations are focused on short -term Bitcoin consolidation, while the rest of the market can start significant growth movements. Then, Bitcoin is expected to break the current maxims and the pursuit of the $ 130-140 thousand zone within the average date. The chain models indicate a narrower forecast: $ 135-138 thousand in Q3/Q4.
Experts from the ARI10 team predict that the Bitcoin course has a chance to rise well above 123 thousand recorded recently. dollars, and in the coming months of BTC can reach up to 200,000 dollars.
Key risks for a further rally
The main threats are macroeconomic, with inflation. Subsequent readings will be particularly important if the duties effects begin to significantly affect the data in the coming months.
Analysts such as Riya Sehgal from Delta Exchange suggest that BTC must stay above USD 84,000 to keep the bull’s structure. Despite the current levels much above this threshold, it will be crucial to observe the market response to macroeconomic data. Let us remind you that Bitcoin has already dived once in the last months below USD 80,000.
Conclusions for you
The current market environment creates particularly favorable conditions for Altcoins with lower capitalization, which can now achieve better results than Bitcoin. This is especially true for memecoins and selected alternative projects, most often with strong foundations, e.g. Hyperliquid.
The latest market analysis suggests maintaining a bull’s approach to digital assets while monitoring key macroeconomic indicators. The final forecast indicates Bitcoin above $ 135,000 by the end of the year, which is an ambitious but achievable goal in the light of the current market dynamics.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $ 112-115 thousand
- The nearest resistance: $ 125,000
- Long -term goal: 150+ thousand dollars next year
For investors like you, it will now be key to keeping discipline in risk management, observing macroeconomic indicators and the use of the potential of the beginning of the Altcoins season while taking care of possible corrections to possible corrections on the road to further increases.
The text is not investment advice.
