- Iran carried out its first attacks on the United Arab Emirates yesterday since the April 8 ceasefire: 15 missiles and four drones hit the emirate of Fujairah, sparking a fire at an oil facility and injuring three people
- The US sank six Iranian boats during Operation Project Freedom – an attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz to trade
- Bitcoin retreats from the daily high of $80,594, but this morning it costs approximately $81,000 – the market does not react with panic like in February
- This is the first serious escalation in almost a month and a real threat to the fragile truce – Iran’s foreign minister warned that the UAE and the US may be drawn into a conflict again
Monday, early Asian hours. Bitcoin breaks through $80,000 for the first time in three months, $301 million short positions have just ceased to exist, the market breathes a sigh of relief.
A few hours later everything changes.
Iran launches attacks on the United Arab Emirates. Not a false alarm, not an unconfirmed message from the Fars agency – a real attack: 15 ballistic missiles and 4 drones fired towards the emirate of Fujairah. The UAE’s air defenses intercept most of it, but one drone catches an oil facility and starts a fire. Three people injured. Two merchant ships catch fire off the coast of the UAE.
These are the first attacks on the UAE since April 8, when the US and Iran concluded a two-week ceasefire.
What happened in the last 24 hours
To understand the importance of what is happening, you need to know the context. On May 4, Trump announced Operation “Project Freedom” – an escort of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked for two months, with the participation of 15,000 troops, destroyers and over a hundred planes. Two US-flagged ships were the first to cross the strait.
Iran responded immediately. He warned that any foreign military unit entering the strait zone would be attacked. On the same day, Iranian boats tried to block the passage of merchant ships – the Americans sank six of them. In the evening, rockets and drones fell on Fujairah.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on the night of May 4-5 on the X platform that the UAE should be careful not to be drawn into the conflict again. The same warning applies to the US. Tehran did not officially admit to the attacks, but it did not deny it either.
Trump, in an interview with Fox News, warned that Iran would be “wiped off the face of the earth” if it attacked American ships.
What this means for Bitcoin – and why the market reaction is different this time
This is where the most interesting part of this story begins.
BTC moved back yesterday from $80,594 to around $78,700. But this morning it costs around $81,000. Brent crude oil exceeded $114. US bond yields are rising. And Bitcoin is higher than before the attack.
In February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran for the first time, BTC dropped from $70,000 to $62,000 over the weekend. Panic, selling, everyone was running away from risky assets. Today, Iran is attacking the UAE with missiles and drones, and Bitcoin is rising.
Is the market starting to ignore the war?
I think the answer is more complex than a simple “yes”. In the two months since the conflict broke out, investors have learned one lesson: every geopolitical correction was a buying opportunity. BTC dropped after each escalation and recovered after each de-escalation signal – regularly, predictably, like a clock. The market is beginning to price war not as a black swan, but as a new normal with specific patterns of behavior.
In addition, there is structural change. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed almost $2 billion in April alone – institutions do not sell out with every geopolitical news because their investment horizon is different than that of a leveraged trader. This stabilizes the price at moments that would have triggered an avalanche of stop-loss orders a year ago.
However, I think it is too early to draw a firm conclusion. European and American traditional markets are just opening up as I write these words. A full institutional response to last night’s attacks has not yet occurred. $81,000 in the morning Polish time is a strong signal of resilience – but not a certificate that Bitcoin has permanently separated from geopolitics.
Two scenarios for the next few days
Scenario one: the market is right and BTC is actually ripe for this conflict. The ceasefire is breaking down, but negotiations continue, escalation has a ceiling, and the institutional buyer base cushions each collapse. In this scenario, the correction to $78,000 – $79,000 is a floor, not a starting point for further declines.
Scenario two: This morning’s response is delayed, not absent. If Trump decides to respond militarily to the attacks on the UAE, if oil breaks $120 and inflation in the US starts rising again – the market may only price it in 12 or 24 hours. Then $81,000 will turn out to be a trap for optimists.
Which scenario is more likely? Honestly – I don’t know. And anyone who tells you today that they know is probably guessing.
What I know for sure: anyone analyzing Bitcoin without following the Gulf is simply not following the market in 2026.
