Bitcoin is growing. But no one buys it – Bitcoin.pl

Most people look at the result and say: “plus 12.7% in a month, not bad.” I understand this reflex. But when I look at what was fueling this growth beneath the surface, I become a little less comfortable.

CryptoQuant, one of the most respected platforms for on-chain data analysis (i.e. reading what is actually happening in the Bitcoin network), published a report this week that is worth reading carefully. His main thesis is simple and unpleasant: April was a speculative rally, not a fundamental one.

What fueled the growth?

The difference is key. When someone buys BTC on the spot market, they actually take possession of the coin. When he opens a long position on perpetual futures, he is betting on the price rising without purchasing the asset. These are two different things, even though both can boost the chart.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, described the situation literally this way in his report: futures demand was the sole driver of April’s growth, while spot demand was shrinking throughout. The “apparent demand” index, which tracks actual on-chain purchases, was negative throughout April, from the first to the last day of growth.

Why is this a warning sign?

This arrangement has a history. An identical pattern, growing futures with shrinking spot activity, appeared at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. That futures rally also looked promising until it started to unravel. Leveraged positions, when the market stops rising, expand dramatically and rapidly. There is no natural buyer base underneath them to cushion the decline.

CryptoQuant explicitly says that the current structure carries a serious risk of correction. And he emphasizes the important thing: this is not a forecast of an inevitable bear market. This is a signal that the robustness of current growth is uncertain.

This thesis is confirmed by one more indicator. The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index, an aggregate of many on-chain and market indicators on a scale of 0 to 100, looked paradoxical throughout April: the price was rising and the index score dropped from 50 to 40, returning below the neutral threshold into the bear zone. This means that market fundamentals were deteriorating right when the chart was looking its best.

What about ETFs?

There is an interesting complication here. Spot Bitcoin ETFs (funds through which institutions buy BTC) pulled in almost $2 billion in April, their best monthly performance in 2026. One day, May 1, saw $630 million in inflows.

If institutions were buying, why was spot demand negative?

In my opinion, the answer is this: ETF flows are a specific category. Coins go to fund vaults, not individual wallets, and their impact on on-chain metrics is measured differently by CryptoQuant analysts. Institutions provided some support, but not strong enough to reverse the weakness in retail and organic demand. The rally was leveraged, not accumulative.

What does this mean for you?

I’m not writing this to spread panic. Bitcoin is trading at around $79,500 today, still above the purchase cost of most mid-term hodlers. But I think it’s important to understand the nature of what’s going on before you make a decision.

If the following weeks bring spot demand back to positive values, the current consolidation may turn into a healthy base for further growth. And if spot demand remains negative and leveraged positions begin to expand, a correction could be quick and nasty.

That’s why CryptoQuant says the onus is now on the spot market to prove growth strength. Until real buyers come into play, any upward bounce will be fragile.