Geopolitics has never been friendly to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This time will be no different. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and specifically the coordinated strikes by the US and Israel against Iranian targets, caused a wave of turbulence on global energy markets. Will Bitcoin miners feel it in their wallets? The answer is more nuanced than you might think.
The Strait of Hormuz holds the world by the throat
About 40% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. When military operations disrupted tanker traffic in this strategic chokepoint, markets reacted immediately. Brent crude oil shot up from around USD 60 per barrel to over USD 100 (there was even a temporary jump to USD 150), and then stabilized around USD 90. Interestingly, decentralized derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid have gained prominence as a tool for trading oil outside of traditional trading hours – a sign of the times that DeFi is starting to enter the purview of traditional commodity markets.
Electricity is not oil, and that’s the point
Intuition tells us that rising oil prices = more expensive electricity = higher BTC mining costs. However, analysts from Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index tone down these concerns. The vast majority of mining farms are powered by networks based on natural gas, coal, hydropower or geothermal energy, not oil. The direct correlation between the price of oil and industrial electricity rates in the US is surprisingly weak, and any price impact is slowly absorbed anyway by multi-month energy tariff regulatory cycles.
The real enemy of Bitcoin miners is hashprice and macro sentiment
So where is the risk? In revenue. Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations, which in turn influences interest rate policy and drives institutional capital towards safer assets. Bitcoin (as a high-risk asset) loses its attractiveness in such an environment. This, in turn, compresses the hashprice, i.e. the indicator of revenue per unit of computing power.
Hashrate Index data shows that this mechanism already worked at the beginning of this year. Hashprice crashed to an all-time low of $27.89 per PH/s/day in February, after Bitcoin lost 23.8% – sliding from near $78,000 to $65,000.
Miners who secured revenues through rolling USD-denominated forward contracts outperformed spot miners by up to 8.2%. This is an argument for active risk management rather than passively waiting for the market to rebound.
USD stronger, Bitcoin under pressure
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily strengthened the USD, which creates a short-term macro upside for risky assets. At the same time, global liquidity conditions and the prospect of further Fed easing are sustaining institutional demand for digital assets. Bitcoin remains above $73,000, supported by inflows into ETFs and tightening supply on exchanges.
Bitunix analysts indicate that the technical structure of BTC remains in consolidation in the short term – resistance in the range of USD 72,000-73,500, support around USD 69,000. The market is waiting for a directional signal.
It’s not an electricity bill, it’s a risk bill
The geopolitical oil shock will not kill miners due to rising operating costs. However, it may hurt them in terms of revenues – if global macroeconomic uncertainty curbs risk appetite and drags Bitcoin down. In this business, what is more important than how much a kilowatt hour costs is how much the mined block is worth.
