In the current growth cycle, the cryptocurrency market behaves differently than in 2017 or 2021 instead of “fireworks” powered by mass FOMO, we observe a calmer, treaded upward trend. Financial institutions – ETF funds, assets managers, corporate treasures became the main director. The effect of hedonistic adaptation means that “street” no longer reacts to the next ATH as it used to be. Below we show how this change occurred, what strategies the institutions use and what it means for the next quarters.
Previous bulls vs. Current: change of the drive engine
HOSSA 2017 She was a classic example of a retail mania: rapid growths and euphoria of new participants, culminating with a spectacular peak. Hossa 2020-2021 brought the first “serious” entrances to listed companies (e.g. BTC treasures in balance sheets) and the growing interest of the institution, but it was still the detail that fueled the influx of capital to the Altcoins. IN cycle 2024–2025 there has been a qualitative jump: the main demand channel has become institutional productsespecially the American spot ETFs on Bitcoin, which attracted tens of billions of net dollars and have become a de facto new btc tributary pipe to BTC. Fresh price records in mid-2025 coincided with powerful one-day inflows to ETFs (over USD 1 billion day after day), which clearly contrasts with the past, when the peaks were primarily the result of retailing emotions.
At the same time Mass interest rates (e.g. Google Trends) do not confirm “gold fever”: even at prices exceeding 100,000 USD, searching for Bitcoin’s passwords remained lower than during previous manias. This is a strong clue that the current demand impulse does not come from a wide audience.
Application: In the years 2024–2025 the structure of demand moved from the retail “parabola” towards the institutional, systematic influx of capital.
The biggest players and their entrance paths
ETF-y spot on btc Today this is the most important vector of institutionalization – they give an exhibition to millions of clients as part of simple brokerage and retirement accounts. By mid-July 2025, cumulative inflows to American ETFs reached several billion USD, with a strong participation of the largest suppliers (including Blackrock). This mechanism systematically “sucks” supply from the cash market (asset trade with immediate settlement).
The second pillar is Corporate treasures and funds: The rotation of supply from “historical” whale addresses to new long -term institutional owners is underway. July 2025 brought loud sales transactions through very old addresses (80,000 BTC once), which the market absorbed without a permanent breakdown – this is a symptom of the growing power of the institution’s demand and greater liquidity maturity.
Moreover, online analysts have been reporting for months “Healthy rotation”. The same price levels that seem attractive to sell for bitcoin whales, for institutions and corporations turn out to be suitable for accumulation. In this way, BTC focused on a small amount of thick wallets so far is distracting, which increases market resistance to individual decisions of large addresses.
Institution strategies: accumulation, OTC and derivative instead of pursuit of Alfa
The institutions in this bull market play “Marathon”, not “Sprint”. Instead of collecting the market with public orders, accumulate discreetly (including by OTC), a Hedging and generation of income They realize through options. Data from reports show OTC volume explosion in the first half of 2025 (jump by ~ 412% y/y), with the dominance of couples BTC/ETH. This confirms that the large capital prefers to manage the risk and exposure in the institutional channel, except for the ordering board of cryptocurrency exchanges.
The market is divided into institutions that focus on “Blue Chips” (mainly BTC, ETH), while the street is still looking for a fast alpha in memecoins and niche alts. The turnout of preferences explains why the main index is growing without extravagant “10x in a week” stories, which previously pumped media narrative, attracting subsequent retailers hungry for similar roi.
The result of such tactics is decrease in variability caused by impulses and less susceptibility news. The institutions maintain target allocations, rebalans mechanically and buy on declines. This is a different supply/demand curve than in the “retail” hossie, where panic and euphoria intertwined in short intervals dominated.
Hedonistic adaptation: Why does “street” not see fireworks?
Psychologically, investors have already got used to large BTC valuations – levels ~ 100,000 USD no longer makes such an impression as before. Low level of search and commitment of mainstream At the next ATH is an empirical trace of this adaptation: a stimulus that once lit Fomo is a “new norm” today. This maintains a large part of the potential demand “on the bench” – until there is a more bright impulse (e.g. spectacular appreciation of the Alts, mass marketing campaigns of Krypto products)
From the institution’s perspective an ideal accumulation environment: less media noise, less “candles”, more time to build positions. That is why the bull market looks “quiet”, although in the background a historic transfer of values towards entities with a long horizon.
“Stopping” prices around round levels? What the data say
In 2025, the market was reflected several times in the area of large, psychological levels (100–120 thousand USD) several times. Waves of profit implementation by new large owners They appeared at the booms of over 120 thousand. USD, which limited parabolic acceleration – Cryptoquant identified the jumps of completed profits of USD 6-8 billion around local peaks. This behavior is consistent with the rules of risk management and portfolio rebalansing – you do not need to add to this narrative “the collusion of institutions to play the market”.
Simultaneously supply from old addresses It was absorbed amazingly smoothly – loud sales 80 thousand. BTC by the “ancient” whale resulted only with a shallow correction and a quick return of demand. This is rather plastic proof of depth of new demand rather than proof of the intentional “holding” of the course.
Application: Possible “ceilings” around 100-120 thousand USD was probably the result of the natural implementation supply and rebalans of large entities, supported by the psychology of round levels – and not necessarily the coordinated attempt to “park” the price.
What next? Scenarios and implications
Base scenario (continued quiet bull market): As long as ETFs supply demand and institutions maintain allocations in BTC/ETH, the upward trend may remain stretched in time and less “explosive” than in the past. In such an environment it is long -term capital It sets the conditions of the game, and the detail only joins when the stimuli become clearly spectacular (e.g. an avalanche of headers or rotation from BTC to ALTs).
Scenario “Euphoria trigger”: Breaking over subsequent, media load-bearing barriers (e.g. 150–180 thousand USD) or a wave of new products (ETFs with staking at ETH in the USA, wider access in retirement plans) can include mass FOMO and “last wave” of the cycle. Some commentators also bind to the cessation of supply from individual, large sellers (“let’s remove some great sales offers and the road to 150k is open”). However, this is a conditional scenario, depending on supply and sentiment.
Risks and “wind in the back”: Macro (feet, liquidity), regulatory shocks, infrastructure incidents (e.g. stock exchanges, stablecoin) – in a short term they can suppress the inflow rate to ETFs and change the sentiment. However, so far the market has shown the ability to quickly absorb supply during drops.
Key conclusions for the reader
- Change of paradigm: It is not the “street” that pulls the market today, but institutional architecture (ETFs, Treasures, OTC). This explains the lack of “fireworks” despite the price records.
- Strategy “Buy and Mainten + Hedging”: The explosion of OTC volumes and BTC/ETH preference confirm that institutions play for a long -term value and risk control, not a short -term alpha.
- Healthy property rotation: Old whales sell, but the demand of the institution is taken over by supply without lasting damage to the trend – this is a sign of market maturation.
- Hedonistic adaptation works: The low interest in the mainstream at ATH leaves the institutions of accumulation. Retail euphoria may come later – potentially as “last wave”.
Summary
The current bull market is quiet revolution: less shout, more structural demand. Hedonistic adaptation meant that the “street” no longer reacts to the same stimuli as it used to be – the standard is high levels, not a price shock. Meanwhile, institutions, armed with ETFs and OTC tools, systematically they move the ownership In your direction. For the investor, this means a market with increasing liquidity, potentially lower price variability “from day to day”, but also a smaller number of lottery stories about Gemach X100.
If “fireworks” appear once, most likely only when The institutions will already make up the task of accumulation And they want to sell part of the exhibition to the growing number of customers. Until then Calm on the chart is not a sign of weakness, but forces of new demand infrastructure.
