Is yesterday’s bitcoin crash the beginning of a bull market? A similar phenomenon occurred in 2016, recalls trader Peter Brandt.
Peter Brandt says the real bull market started yesterday
In a post on X on August 5, analyst Peter Brandt wrote that “the decline (of BTC price) after the halving is similar to that during the bull cycle (…) of 2015-2017.”
Is he right? In 2016, the Bitcoin crash occurred on July 9. From $650, which was what 1 BTC was paid for at the time of halving, the price fell to $474. This meant a 27 percent correction. In December 2021, 1 BTC was paid for $20,000.
Yesterday something similar happened. There was a 26% correction. At the time of halving, one bitcoin was worth around $65,000. The price fell a little below $50,000.
At the time of writing, a single bitcoin is worth just over $55,500, which is a 3.6% jump in a day. However, if someone bought BTC a week ago, they are still down 16%.
Ether costs 2,500 USD, which means that it has gone up by 6.3% in 24 hours. However, the situation is still worse on a 7-day scale. Ether investors are losing as much as 24%.
Is this the beginning of a real bull market?
So, are we facing the beginning of a proper bull market and strong growth? If cyclicality is still in effect, we will have to wait until the last quarter of this year for that. However, this does not change the fact that yesterday’s crash was just the result of media hype and not entirely justified fear of investors.
The main factor in the declines was information about the growing tensions between Iran and Israel. The media claimed that war would break out on Monday. As we know, nothing of the sort happened. It is doubtful that a full-scale conflict will break out in the region. It will probably all start and end with a short exchange of fire using missiles or drones.
The market could also be scared by the jump in unemployment in the US. But that’s good news, because it will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates.
