The current week brings a number of key events that can significantly affect the direction of financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. After last week’s symposium in Jackson Hole, where the Federal Reserve clearly signaled the gradual approach to interest rate reductions, investors eagerly expect the most important macroeconomic data and NVIDIA financial results.
The Fed signals caution – markets react with withdrawal
The symposium in Jackson Hole provided markets for a clear message – interest rates will fall, but gradually, and the Fed is not going to hurry. This way of communication led to the withdrawal on the markets that began this week in corrective tone after previous increases.
The main reason for this reaction was the disappointment of investors who counted on a more aggressive monetary policy. However, from a long -term perspective, a gradual Fed approach may be more favorable for markets stability, including cryptocurrencies.
Core PCE – a key inflation indicator in the attention center
The most expected event of the week will be the publication of the Core PCE (Personal Consumction Expenditures) indicator on Friday. This is the inflation meter preferred by the FED, and market expectations provide for a reading in accordance with forecasts.
Any positive surprise in this indicator can significantly “shake” markets and arouse anxiety among FED decision makers. The Core PCE reading higher than expectations could make the FED to even more caution in the reduction of the feet, which would negatively affect risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Thursday data – GDP and applications for unemployment benefit
Thursday will bring the publication of second respect of GDP and weekly applications for unemployment benefit. These data will provide valuable insight into the condition of the American economy in terms of growth and labor market.
Data from the labor market will be particularly important, which can affect the expectations of the September scale of the Fed reduction. Poor data could increase the likelihood of a more aggressive cut by 50 base points.
Nvidia results as a barometer of boom AI
The financial results of the American technology company NVIDIA (for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025), which will be published this week (and exactly tomorrow, i.e. on Wednesday, August 27 after closing the trade session), will be crucial for assessing the durability of the boom related to artificial intelligence. Positive results along with optimistic forecasts for the future could support risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Scenarios for the September decision of the FED
Analysts see two main scenarios regarding the September decision FED:
Base scenario – cutting with 25 base points: This is the most likely scenario that would suggest a gradual cycle of relieving monetary policy towards the neutral level of foot. This approach would be positive for economic growth and risky assets.
Alternative scenario – cutting 50 base points: Less likely, but possible in the case of poor data from the labor market at the beginning of September. Such an aggressive cut could signal the serious weakness of the labor market and late Fed relative to the cycle, which would be negative for risky assets.
Technical analysis of the Bitcoin structure
Bitcoin is currently in the range between resistance of 112 thousand. USD, and support around 110-108 thousand dollars. It will be crucial whether the cryptocurrency will regain the upper ceiling of this compartment and continues to move up, or will not be able to do it and we will see a re -test of lower levels around USD 104,000.
Investment strategy – patience and accumulation
The current week is not conducive to the chase after prices. The recommended strategy is based on three pillars: identification of price ranges, preserving patience and accumulation on the holes of ranges during price corrections.
Experts remain convinced that we are still in the bull market, and the last price campaign probably reflects the environment of profit implementation after high movement up to Jackson Hole. This is a natural behavior during low summer volumes, which is worth remembering.
In the meantime, also read: Bitcoin reaches a milestone – 1.7% of the global money supply!
Purchase levels for long -term investors
Long -term investors can consider the following price levels as a lucrative place for long -term purchases:
- Bitcoin: 108-112 thousand USD
- Ethereum: 3970-4330 USD
These levels offer attractive entry points for those who believe in long -term cryptocurrency potential and want to use current corrections to build positions.
The current week will be crucial to determine the short -term direction of cryptocurrency markets. The combination of macroeconomic data, NVIDIA results and expectations regarding FED policy will create the basis for further price movements.
Investors should be careful and not succumb to emotions, focusing on fundamental analysis and patient approach to building position. Despite short -term uncertainty, long -term perspectives for the cryptocurrency market remain positive, especially in the context of the expected cycle of interest rates.
Maybe you are also curious what will happen when Satoshi Nakamoto moves its 1.1 million bitcoins? This is a scenario that, according to many, can shake the whole market!
