Is Poland threatened with war with Russia? Yes, and the worst thing is that it will not be fully depended on us, but on the policy of the powers.
Poland is threatened with war
In the media, we constantly hear about whether we are in danger of war. Most experts confirm, although they add that we can scare Russia with our military capabilities. Is this really?
In an interview with the portal Gazeta.pl Analyst Konrad Music said that Moscow could attack “when NATO ceases to be reliable in repelling Russia.”
So when the consistency of the alliance falls significantly. For example, by militarily withdrawing the US from Europe or NATO at all. In addition, when the countries from the Western Europe will cease to be involved in supporting us and focus more on their internal or local problems
he explained.
And it is worth adding that the expert says it at a time when the media reported that in the USA it is discussed to reduce the budget for the US troops that would defend the Baltic countries and Romania. And these areas important for Russia for geopolitical, defense reasons and in some ideological sense – they were part of the Eastern Bloc, so the Kremlin may want to re -include them in the camp of their “subjects”.
American media reports did not show that US troops were to be reduced in Poland. Donald Trump was even supposed to promise Karol Nawrocki that he would leave about 10,000 soldiers. However, let’s not be illusory: it is not enough, so in the event of a conflict we must rely mainly on ourselves and support from the West. The last drone raid showed that we are not doing well ourselves: 19 unmanned airspace flew into our airspace, of which we did not shoot down even half.
You should observe Russia and China
It’s not just about NATO and the USA. It is also important whether Russia will rebuild its strength. Analysts in 2022 said that they needed a decade for it. Were they right? For now, the Kremlin is very efficiently rebuilding the potential of unmanned systems – for example, the production of tanks is worse. In Ukraine, the Russians lost 4,000 of them, assemble 250-300 a year. They are completely new about 90.
Moscow needs a few thousand to attack Poland (implicitly on NATO) tanks, but already for the invasion of the Baltic States – no. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are characterized by a small strategic depth – it is simply easier to conquer them through their small surfaces. In the event of an attack on this part of Europe, Poland will have to go to allies for help. And this can draw us into the war with Russia.
Why, however, the Kremlin would like to occupy the region? I mentioned it in general above. Time for details. It is, for example, a Suwałki isthmus, which would give free access to Kaliningrad, a part of Russia with which we bordered and which is separated from the rest of the power of the power.
Above all, however, Moscow conducts an expansive policy, because he wants to influence European countries, their policy, not allow any of them to grow too much and, above all, guarantee access to markets for their raw materials – oil and gas. It is not without reason that Donald Trump is now pressing on NATO countries so that they do not buy raw materials from the Russians – he knows that it will hurt Vladimir Putin the most, because most of the power budget comes from the sale of oil and gas. Russia wants to protect itself against this variant.
In general, the situation goes to the solstice, but for the Kremlin attack on NATO, there must be one more factor – the US must involve their troops in the Pacific.
The US war with China
To see a full picture, we must now direct our eyes to China and Taiwan.
Taiwan has been one of the most sensitive points of the dispute between the United States and the Middle Kingdom for decades. For Beijing, the island is not only an element of the “unfinished process of unification of the state”, but also a strategic security barrier. Control over Taiwan would give China more access to the Pacific and the possibility of limiting US influence in the region. In addition, the island plays a similar role as Kuba in the case of US security. Rockets installed in Taiwan can easily hit continental China.
From the perspective of Washington, Taiwan is a key economic partner – especially because of the production of semiconductors. And unlike China – it’s worth having an ally that can be chewed by a rival!
Added to this is the Malakka Strait, a narrow sea trail between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, which is one of the most important points of international trade. About 30% of global goods flow through this narrow transition, including oil and gas transported from the Middle East to East Asia. For China, the Strait is of key importance – most of the imported energy raw materials go to the Middle Kingdom just through the malecama. Hence the Chinese fear of the potential blockage of this trail through the US jacket in the event of a conflict. For this reason, Beijing invests in alternative transport corridors, in the famous new silk trail.
For the United States, control over malakka is the opportunity to maintain a strategic advantage in Asia and influence the security of deliveries to China, and thus also on the entire Chinese economy.
So we have at least two disputed points in the region. This is applied to the general escalation on the Beijing-Washington line, which results from the fact that the first has grown in strength, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, he showed how important the place on the globe is, and above all the ambitions of the US replacement in the role of a world hegemon.
Tukidides trap – history lesson
This leads us to the concept of “Tukidides trap”. This is a concept formulated by political scientist Graham Allison, referring to the rivalry between the dominant power and the growing power. Her name refers to the ancient historian Tukidyides, who described the causes of the Peloponian war – the clash of Athens with Sparta.
According to this theory, when the new state begins to undermine the existing system of power, the risk of conflict is growing, because the dominant power is trying to stop the rival. Nowadays, this analogy is applied to the US -China relationship. The growing economic and military power of Beijing undermines American domination, which increases the likelihood of an open clash.
And now the question: will the US dare to attack China (or vice versa)? If this happens, it will mean the opening of Pandora’s box, also in Europe.
The escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing could create a chance for Russia. The conflict would distract the attention and resources of the United States from Europe, which could weaken support for Ukraine and increase Moscow’s freedom. The latter will mean a potential attack on the Baltic States – showing that the US no longer protects the region, so this gap must be occupied by another power, i.e. Russia.
Yes, we are in danger of war
To sum up: yes, Poland actually threatens the risk of getting into the war with Russia, but it does not depend only on our actions, but above all on the global competition of powers. It will be crucial for us to maintain NATO coherence and the presence of US troops in Europe, as well as the development of the situation on the Washington -Pekin line. If the Americans are militarily involved in Asia, the Kremlin can use the weakening of the West to hit the Baltic State. The future of Poland is decided today not only in Warsaw or Moscow, but also in Washington and Beijing.
