Polymarket traders made 10x their capital on the rumored Bitcoin sale by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The incident shows how simple disinformation can cause chaos on the cryptocurrency market.
Panic on the stock exchange and immediate reaction
Just 3 days ago on the Polymarket platform, the probability that Strategy would sell any part of its BTC holdings by January 1, 2026 was only 3%. During several hours of pre-market trading on the Nasdaq, traders were panic-stricken, placing bets with odds as high as 45 percent.
At the same time, MSTR shares fell to around $193 in pre-market trading. After the opening of the New York Stock Exchange, prices bounced above USD 200, suggesting that the initial reaction was overly emotional.
The source of the rumor? Misinterpretation of data
The confusion was caused by a misleading claim based on a screenshot from the Arkham Intelligence analytics platform. The system displayed BTC transfers in red font. Worse still, readers assumed that Strategy’s transfers to the cryptocurrency exchange amounted to an actual sale of assets.
Michael Saylor quickly responded, explaining that the company had not sold any bitcoin and that the transfers were merely movements of funds to the exchange, not sales transactions.
Market Context and Strategy Performance
The incident came at a particularly emotional time for the cryptocurrency sector, which has lost $1 trillion in market capitalization over the past five weeks. Bitcoin, which peaked at $126,000, fell to around $94,000, shedding a year’s worth of gains.
Strategy is doing even worse – MSTR shares have lost 29% since the beginning of the year. values. The company’s market capitalization has fallen below the value of its bitcoin holdings, and the stock has underperformed BTC itself for 28 months in a row.
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Transparency problem
It would be easier to track Strategy’s trades if Saylor agreed to publish a list of the company’s holdings or confirmation of reserves. The CEO has repeatedly denied such requests from shareholders, citing mainly security concerns.
After Saylor’s explanation, the probability of Strategy selling returned to its pre-panic level – it is now 4%. It is worth noting that on platforms such as Polymarket, rates do not always reflect the actual probability of events, and markets are often poorly liquid and susceptible to manipulation. This particular market saw a turnover of just $1 million.
