The bitcoin price fell to $93,000 overnight. Is this the definitive end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market? Or maybe macroeconomic and political factors will fuel further growth?
Bitcoin price is falling
The bitcoin price fell to $93,000 overnight. Ether up to USD 3,000. Both levels were quickly defended, but it is still difficult to talk about a counter-offensive by the bulls.
Currently, 1 BTC costs just over USD 95,000.
Ether has returned to levels above $3,180.
Overall, we see a rebound in the market, but the situation is still far from ideal.
Is this the end of the bull market?
Currently, there is a dispute on social media about whether there is a bear market or just a break in the bull market. The recent decline and closing the week at such low levels may – from a technical point of view – suggest the end of the bull market. However, the broader horizon and macroeconomic and political factors suggest otherwise.
Analyst Łukasz Wydra noted that a death cross can be seen on the chart, although he emphasizes that this is not a reason to worry:
The Death Cross has just appeared on the Bitcoin chart. Should you be worried? Absolutely NO!
This pattern appears when the 50-day moving average (red line) crosses the 200-day moving average (green line). It sounds dramatic – the name itself evokes fear – but historically this event has been more cathartic than destructive for the market.
Look at the chart below. Each vertical line marks the moment this intersection occurs. Notice how often it coincided with correction lows. In the current growth cycle structure, this has happened every time.
Of course, no signal repeats itself perfectly indefinitely – but considering the scale of fear that currently dominates the market and the pace of recent declines… this is a strong justification for expecting a rebound.
For my part, I would add that we are facing the end of quantitative tightening, the replacement of the Fed president with someone close to Donald Trump (which will probably translate into aggressive cuts or even quantitative easing) and a potential cut in interest rates. by the US central bank in December (although the chances of this happening are decreasing).
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, summarized for us what to look out for:
The most important factors to keep an eye on are regulatory developments in the U.S. — especially around ETFs, the legal framework for payment stablecoins, and oversight of exchanges — as they could quickly turn market sentiment towards a more optimistic one. From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker US dollar and a revival in ETF inflows could act as strong growth catalysts. Conversely, regulatory delays, a rise in rates, or a deeper bitcoin correction would likely extend the market cooling period. At the moment, however, the situation looks like a healthy correction, not the end of a cycle (…).
