There was optimism in the markets. Bitcoin has broken through an important five-month resistance line, which may herald an imminent exit from the consolidation that is tiring for investors. In addition, we are receiving positive information from around the world related to the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, systemic changes in Japan and Pakistan, as well as interesting solutions tailored to the post-quantum era. Traditional markets have assigned ATH to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and sentiment has improved significantly. In today’s analysis, traditionally in three dimensions – technical, market and on-chain – we check whether the bulls have enough strength to maintain new levels.
Market and geopolitical situation
In the area of cryptocurrency adoption, we are receiving groundbreaking information from the world:
- Japan: Green light for 105 cryptoassets to be recognized as full-fledged investment products, not just payment applications.
- Pakistan: Opening the local banking system to licensed virtual asset providers, which could really drive global adoption in such a densely populated country.
- Tether: The USDT issuer increased its reserves by another 951 BTC, which confirms the accumulation trend among the largest players.
Sentiment: extreme fear vs. greed
We are seeing a fascinating divergence between the traditional market and cryptocurrencies:
- Fear & Greed Index (Traditional): He went from 37 to 62 points (greed) in just a week.
- Fear & Greed Index (Crypto): Despite a slight rebound from 14 to 23 points, we are still in a phase of extreme fear.
The capitalization of the entire crypto market is now USD 2.52 trillion (up from USD 2.41 trillion as of April 10). The dollar index (DXY) dropped below the level of 98, which theoretically should push capital towards “safe havens”. Additionally, the falling VIX volatility index is a classic bullish signal for stock markets.
Technical analysis
Bitcoin
We are seeing a key level fight on the BTC/USD chart $75,000. This level has already been violated several times.
- Moving averages: There was a crossing of MA20 and MA50, which, given balanced volumes, is a pro-growth signal.
- Indicators: RSI favors buyers, and MACD shows that the price is slowly gaining momentum.
- Variability: The market is currently quite “sluggish” and volume has increased by approximately 7.5% with no clear dominance of the buyers or sellers.
Ethereum
The situation on Ether is similar, although volumes show a downward trend. The fight for the USD 2,400 level and behavior towards MA200 remain crucial. The intersection of MA20 and MA50 is visible, which gives hope for an end to the stagnation.
Altcoin of the week: Monero
On-chain analysis
On-chain data provides many optimistic arguments:
- ExchangeNetflow: It is negative – investors are massively withdrawing BTC from exchanges to hardware wallets.
- Stock reserves: They continue to decline, reducing available supply.
- Addresses: The number of unique active addresses increased to approximately 500,000.
- MVRV Z-Score: Around 1.0 confirms that the market is not overheated and has a large margin for further increases.
- Puell Multiple: It suggests that miners prefer to hold onto rewards rather than sell them.
- Stablecoins: The capitalization of stablecoins increased to USD 329 billion, which indicates the readiness of capital to enter the market when a clear signal appears.
Summary – waiting for a strong signal
The current consolidation is unusual. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes are reaching their all-time highs, fear still dominates the cryptocurrency market. Typically, the correlation between NASDAQ and Bitcoin is very strong, so the lack of a dynamic exit above USD 75,000 may suggest that the market is waiting for one, very clear fundamental message. Technically, the market is ready for growth – all that is missing is the spark that will change the sentiment from extreme fear to euphoria.
The information presented in the article does not constitute investment advice.
