We are at a very interesting moment in the history of bitcoin. This includes: about where we are in its cycle. In this text, I will try to explain to you what bitcoin cycles are and how they occur.
Bitcoin cycles: BTC’s history is divided into bear markets and bull markets
A look at the BTC/USD chart shows clearly: the history of bitcoin is full of ups and downs. Or more precisely: bull and bear markets. A bull market means that the cryptocurrency market is going up. A bear market means declines. When there is an advanced bull market, it is worth selling cryptocurrencies, when desperation dominates the market – buying BTC may turn out to be the business of a lifetime.
All of the above seems very simple – just buy cheap, sell expensive. And it’s actually not difficult. However, on one condition: you are an experienced investor or at least you can accurately assess what stage of the cycle we are currently at. How to do this?
Of course, the easiest way is to analyze the chart. However, significant increases occur when bitcoin becomes “expensive”. That’s why you need to learn to spot certain signals heralding a bull market earlier.
Investor sentiment
Let’s start with the moods. During bear markets, these are disastrous, and a Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index it scrapes the bottom and indicates extreme fear. During a strong bull market – extreme greed. During a sideways trend, but also at the beginning of a bull market, we can see that the index pointer is around 50.
This gauge currently shows some overheating. The index shows extreme greed. So you can expect a correction of the recent gains. However, this does not rule out a further boom, already in 2025. For example, today, at a price of over $98,000, the index needle shows 94, which is extreme greed.
You can also assess moods by analyzing social media. If many Internet users predict further declines in the BTC price, to absurdly low levels, it is a sign that a bear market is underway and we may even be close to the bottom. The opposite phenomenon – excessive enthusiasm – is a sign that we will soon see a peak on the chart.
I suggest you experiment a bit. For example, during a bull market, i.e. currently, you can write a comment on Facebook or on X that the bitcoin price will soon drop. If others respond in a downright hysterical manner, ridiculing you, it’s a serious warning that the end of the sky rally is near! In turn, proposing during an extreme bear market that the worst is behind us may also be met with ridicule and the suggestion that you are naive and will “turn off the lights on this market.”
Traditional media do not always tell the truth
In addition to social media, it is also worth following regular media. During an extreme boom, economic portals often quote the statements of famous “experts” who also give in to the mania and predict sky-high future BTC prices. During a bear market, you will easily find headlines about how Bitcoin will soon be almost worthless.
The exchange rate reacts differently to news
Another interesting observation is that the market can react differently to good and bad news during bear and bull markets. The so-called good news during a bear market will only lead to a temporary rebound in the BTC price. During a bull market, they can even generate a solid price jump of several dozen percent within a 24-hour period. In turn, bad news for the market during a bull market is unlikely to crash the price. During a bear market, they will probably cause your investment portfolio to shrink significantly for some time.
Where are we?
Below you can see an almost classic bubble diagram:
Now look at the bitcoin chart:
It is easy to see that the BTC rate has been repeating the speculative bubble pattern for years. The million-dollar question is how long this trend will continue. It is also related to halvings that take place every 4 years. If we assume that everything will continue to run smoothly, we may be in just one of many such cycles. Currently, we are probably in the middle of a bull market. Bitcoin has been rising in price more than altcoins in recent weeks, its dominance reaching as much as 60%. Now it is slowly changing – ether, which has been dormant for a long time, is climbing up the chart. The king of cryptocurrencies himself will probably break USD 100,000 in a few days. This may be a signal to the market that BTC is already expensive and it is worth taking an interest in ETH, LTC, XRP and many other “alts”.
If cyclicality still works (and everything indicates so), we still have a few months of bull market ahead of us. It is possible that this will last until the end of next year.
The above article does not constitute investment advice. It is only an attempt to objectively describe the cryptocurrency market.
You can buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in a simple and safe way on the zondacrypto exchange.
