Macroeconomics: Cryptocurrencies at the center of a historic boom in risky assets
Over the past week, cryptocurrencies have moved hand-in-hand with technology and growth stocks. The market is still driven by the effects of the historic boom on traditional stock exchanges, and investor appetite for risk is growing along with decreasing geopolitical tension.
In this environment, Bitcoin and Ethereum behave as high-beta assets for the same trends that drive the Nasdaq:
- Optimism around AI: Cryptocurrencies are seen as a beneficiary of liquidity in the tech sector.
- High volatility: uncertainty over trade tariffs, interest rates and geopolitical tensions mean that strong gains are often followed by sharp corrections.
The market is evolving from a one-sided pursuit of “AI + ETF” towards a more sustainable, macro-sensitive environment where capital positioning is key.
Bitcoin – from ETF euphoria to the phase of “digesting” profits
Bitcoin’s price has surged this week, but the road to the top has been bumpy. Most of the recent moves have been driven by derivatives market positioning and inflows into ETFs, rather than spot market purchases.
We are currently observing an interesting phenomenon. Funding rates have fallen, suggesting that excessive leverage is leaving the system. At the same time, inflows into ETFs continue to effectively consume the available BTC supply through custodial channels.
Bitcoin is in the digestion phase. Instead of rising in a straight line, BTC looks for value: declines attract buyers (ETFs), and rallies encourage profits to be taken. The next 2-4 weeks will not be about looking for absolute highs, but about respecting the current price range.
Ethereum and its role as a settlement layer
Ethereum is largely following Bitcoin, which confirms the dominant narrative in this cycle: “BTC first, everything else later.” ETH mimics Bitcoin’s direction, but consistently lags behind, struggling to make a sustained breakout.
Despite this, Ethereum’s foundations remain intact. Stablecoins, DeFi lending, and liquid staking are primarily based on ETH and layer two (L2) networks. While ETH’s price behaves like “leveraged Bitcoin,” its role as a global settlement layer is growing. The resumption of on-chain activity could soon funnel capital back into the L2 ecosystem.
DeFi and stablecoins are showing increasing maturity
Data from the DeFi and stablecoin markets show a more cautious approach. Lending markets are showing signs of deleveraging – capital is rotating towards safer havens and cash (stablecoins) instead of aggressively increasing exposure. This is typical late-stage rally behavior: instead of panic selling, risk managers gradually reduce positions.
At the same time, stablecoins have become the “core currency” of the crypto economy, supporting everything from trading on DEX exchanges to automated vaults. Thanks to centralized platforms that “package” these tools into simple savings accounts, DeFi profits become accessible to everyone.
An interesting new paradigm is comparing cryptocurrencies to Big Tech companies:
- Bitcoin (Alphabet/Google): The main macroeconomic indicator. Thanks to ETFs, it is available to institutions, has a transparent history and strong foundations.
- Ethereum (Meta): It offers the potential for faster growth and more ways to earn money (DeFi, staking), but is more volatile and complex.
For traditional brokerage houses, digital assets are no longer a “curiosity”, but a standard part of the portfolio alongside bonds and currencies. Bitcoin acts like a “digital liquidity futures contract,” responding to interest rates and risk appetite.
Legal Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial or legal advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and using leverage carries a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future profits. Please consult a licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.