October 2025 brought an unprecedented situation – the US government shutdown paralyzed the publication of key economic data, leaving the Federal Reserve without decision-making tools. However, markets have learned to function in this information vacuum.
When data is silent, prices take over
The lack of CPI, NFP or inflation updates did not create a void – it created a mirror. Investors have begun to treat markets themselves as a source of data, with each movement in Bitcoin, gold or bond yields becoming a proxy for missing information.
Liquidity didn’t disappear – it just became unmeasurable. The global M2 index, which tracks money supply in the US, Europe, Japan, China and the UK, remains at high levels, although completely disconnected from institutional communication. Interestingly, for the first time, Bitcoin does not follow this index with a lag – it moves in sync, which suggests that the market has internalized capital flows even without official confirmation.
The specter of stagflation and the risk of inaction
Fed representatives, including Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly, warn against stagflation – inflation is rising for the wrong reasons (supply constraints, not demand), and economic growth is clearly slowing down. Normally, the central bank would base decisions on fresh data, but the government shutdown makes this strategy impossible.
The danger is not in action, but in the lack of action. The longer an information blackout lasts, the more markets assume that decision-makers are paralyzed. This vacuum in monetary policy guidance is pushing investors towards assets considered as a hedge against fiat – gold remains the classic choice, but Bitcoin is slowly becoming an alternative.
September clearing of the cryptocurrency market
The second half of September brought a massive sell-off on the cryptocurrency market. Between September 20 and 30, total liquidations exceeded $5 billion, mostly in long positions, as Bitcoin fell more than 7%. within a few days.
Following this correction, Bitcoin quickly rebounded and set a new all-time high in early October, surpassing $126,000. It seemed that the market had gotten rid of its weak hands and was ready to continue its growth.
However, the relief was short-lived. Just a few days after reaching the new ATH, on October 10, cryptocurrencies experienced an even larger liquidation event – almost $19 billion in open positions were liquidated in a single session. The scale was unprecedented, trapping both long and short positions.
This second cleanup left the market almost completely unleveraged, creating a solid foundation for a significant directional move.
Technical analysis: decision zone
Bitcoin’s weekly structure since August 2024 has formed a rising wedge, gradually narrowing the range between higher lows and static highs. The key support is around USD 102,000, resistance around USD 120,000 – this is the last compression zone before a big move.
Momentum is waning. From March 2024, the RSI indicator shows lower highs, creating a clear bearish divergence. An upward wedge break would open the way to the $130,000 and $150,000 levels. A sustained loss of support at $102,000 would confirm a structural breakdown and the beginning of a new bear market.
Ether, in turn, has broken below the upward trend line and is testing it from below.
The market has learned to move on its own
The fourth quarter of 2025 started without economic data guidance, but not without direction. Markets are learning that they don’t need the Fed’s permission to move – they do it on their own.
Currently, Russell is minting new ATH, which increases the risk appetite among retail investors. The rotation of capital from gold to bitcoin is also becoming a reality, thanks to which BTC and the broader altcoin market are slowly regaining the wind. The global M2 money supply is recording new higher peaks, which with a delay should translate positively into cryptocurrencies.
The downside scenario seems to be invalidating before our eyes. Next Wednesday, October 29, will bring us a key insight into the future. Then we expect another interest rate cut from the Fed. Even more important will be what President Jerome Powell says in his speech at 8:30 p.m.
