July 2025 turns out to be extremely dynamic for the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial assets. After a period of relative stability, we are currently observing intensive activity that forces investors to be more vigilant and thoughtful investment decisions. Macroeconomic data for the cryptocurrency market is ahead of us.
Key events affecting the cryptocurrency market
The current week is characterized by relative calmness on the front of macroeconomic data, although investors carefully followed Thursday data on applications for unemployment benefit. Historically, these indicators remained in the range of 220-240 thousand, and from today’s reading 217,000 may not cause significant movements in the markets.
However, a real data storm will come next week. The economic calendar promises to be extremely rich – on Tuesday we will know Jolts data on job offers, on Thursday we will see PCE inflation indicators and data on personal income and expenses, and Wednesday a Federal Reserve meeting will be held. Friday will bring key data on unemployment and employment outside agriculture.
These upcoming publications will probably designate tons for markets for the next two to three months, which is why analysts and investors are preparing for a potential increase in variability.
Pressure on Jerome Powell and positive signals from the trade front
The chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has been under the intensive pressure of the Trump administration, which seeks to lower interest rates for a long time. It is worth emphasizing that the decisions regarding monetary policy are made by the entire FOMC committee, not one person, but political pressure on the head of the Fed has significantly intensified recently.
Last week, the administration began to question the FED expenditure on the renovation of the headquarters of the Central Bank, which is another element of the pressure campaign. Although similar situations have already occurred earlier in the history of relations between the presidents and the chairmen of the FED, the current example is one of the more extreme.
There were also rumors with a possible resignation of Powell from his position. However, these are only speculations that will probably repeat themselves. Expectations indicate that Powell will remain in his position until the end of the term in mid -2026. Possible release or resignation would seriously undermine the independence of the Fed and would probably cause a strong negative reaction of the markets.
On the other hand, positive messages are coming from the trading front. The announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan was accepted by markets with enthusiasm. It was particularly important to set a customs rate of 15 percent instead of the originally considered 25 percent. This development of events increases the likelihood of concluding subsequent trade agreements on more favorable conditions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added optimism, informing about better than expected negotiations with Europeans and the likely extension of the date of distance from the entry into force of duties of August 12.
Bitcoin domination analysis and market overheating signals
The domination of Bitcoin, a key indicator for the cryptocurrency market, experienced a clear decline from 66 percent to 61 percent on a three -day chart. The level 60-61 percent is a historic support zone, which we see with the rest at the moment.
This decrease in Bitcoin’s dominance is also reflected in the behavior of the ETH/BTC pair, which after reaching DNA made a rapid upward movement. The Total3 indicator, representing the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, confirms the boost from the main horizontal resistance of $ 930 billion, reaching the resistance zone around $ 1.1 trillion.
To sum up these observations, it can be said that there was a clear decrease in Bitcoin’s dominance, which resulted in a mini “Altcoin season”. However, the dominance of BTC achieved local support, while Total3 has reached the level of resistance, which results in the current mini-core on the Altcoin market.
Speculation indicators warn against overheating the market
Two key indicators confirm the thesis with a slightly longer correction. The speculation index, showing the percentage of Altcoins with 90-day phrases higher than Bitcoin, reached high levels. Such readings suggest severe speculation, potential excessive use of the financial lever and the growing probability of price correction.
This indicator has recently increased, which prompts you to be more cautious in the short term. Similar signals are sent by Bitcoin Heater, another speculation meter on the market. The high levels of this indicator indicate an increased use of the financial lever, which is a warning signal and requires more investment caution.
