The Wall Street giant is entering prediction markets. Polymarket has new competition?

Prediction markets are no longer a niche toy for crypto enthusiasts. When Citadel Securities – one of the largest market-makers in the world – starts getting into the game, the entire industry should take notice.

Jim Esposito, president of Citadel Securities, said directly at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington: the company’s entry into the prediction market is “certainly possible.”

Prediction markets and liquidity injection

Citadel Securities as a liquidity provider could radically change the nature of prediction markets – today often susceptible to manipulation with larger orders. The company already supports retail investor trades placed by brokers such as Charles Schwab and Robinhood – the latter of which offers access to prediction markets through integration with Kalshi. As interest in these markets grows, Citadel “will probably get sucked in,” as Esposito himself put it.

Geopolitics yes, sport absolutely no

Citadel has no interest in sports betting and that’s the point. Esposito pointed out that prediction markets can serve as an effective instrument for hedging geopolitical risks, citing the upcoming U.S. midterm elections as a “seismic event” that will bring “some of the greatest risks to investors’ portfolios.”

The industry has just had a breakthrough year. According to Bernstein analysts, prediction markets will generate volumes in 2025 USD 51 billion – three times more than a year earlier. Kalshi and Polymarket completed jointly USD 60 billion volume only in the current year. Forecasts say about USD 240 billion in 2026 and a cumulative growth of 80% per year for the next five years. Ceiling USD 1 trillion by 2030 this is no longer science fiction – it is Bernstein’s base scenario.

Kalshi in the spotlight

There’s a reason why Citadel CEO Peng Zhao participated in Kalshi’s financing round at value USD 185 million. Esposito admitted that he closely follows the business models of Kalshi and other platforms, describing Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour as a “good friend.”

The regulatory battlefield is still taking shape – the CFTC is fighting for exclusive jurisdiction over the entire sector, while individual states are attacking sports contracts. One thing’s for sure: when Citadel Securities says it’s “looking” at a market, it usually ends with an entry. Polymarket and Kalshi gain a powerful potential partner – or an equally powerful competitor.

The Wall Street giant is entering prediction markets. Polymarket has new competition? – Bitcoin.pl

Prediction markets and liquidity injection