Cryptocurrencies recorded their strongest weekly gains on Monday since the outbreak of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. Bitcoin temporarily broke above $74,000 while oil markets remain red-hot amid attacks on Iranian infrastructure and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Will cryptocurrencies start a boom despite the constantly deteriorating situation in the Middle East?
Bitcoin and altcoins are up strongly
On Monday morning, Bitcoin rose above $74,000, gaining 2.9% on the day. On a weekly basis, the increase was an impressive 9.7%. This was the fourth attack on a key resistance level – after two weeks of unsuccessful attempts, “digital gold” finally broke the barrier, although it ultimately retreated just below this zone. The market is clearly testing the patience of investors with bearish sentiment.
In parallel with the crypto rally, oil prices rose. North Sea Brent rose in Asian quotations by approximately 1.5%, reaching USD 104.50 per barrel after previously rising to USD 106.50. American WTI crude oil approached the psychological level of USD 100.
The direct cause of the increases were the American strikes on Kharg Island, the most important Iranian oil export hub, and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In times of peace, about one-fifth of global oil production flows through it. Importantly, on Sunday, for the first time since the outbreak of the war, two LNG tankers headed to India passed through the strait.
Risk of further escalation – ending the conflict unrealistic at the moment?
Over the weekend, American planes bombed and severely damaged the oil infrastructure in Vyskie Charg, and on Monday morning, information began to circulate on the Internet about the increasingly likely capture of the island by American troops. This could be an effective way for the US to declare victory without entering into a multi-year conflict that would be led to by a full-scale landing of American troops.
Moreover, Trump claims that other countries that use this route to export oil, such as Great Britain, France, Italy and China, should also take care of securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitics as fuel for markets
The rally in cryptocurrency markets was driven by a mix of geopolitical signals and macroeconomic factors. President Trump announced that the US was conducting talks with Iran – Tehran denied this, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that the Strait of Hormuz is closed only to units from “enemy countries”. Markets immediately interpreted this as an easing of the current total lockdown. Indian ships are said to have free passage.
On-chain signals indicate a late accumulation phase in the BTC cycle
Much of the increase can be attributed to the forced closing of short positions. According to CoinGlass data, a total of USD 344 million of positions were liquidated within 24 hours, of which as much as USD 284.9 million (approximately 83%) were shorts. Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee claims that Bitcoin is entering the final phase of a bear market:I believe that the convergence of key on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV is a clear signal that Bitcoin is entering the final phase of a bear market – a period historically associated with the beginning of long-term capital accumulation. In this situation, cryptocurrencies are increasingly acting as collateral for assets denominated in US dollars, which is supported by sustained inflows of funds into BTC-based ETFs and the growing liquidity of stablecoins, which strengthen the structural foundations of the market.
At the same time, macroeconomic factors continue to play a role. Geopolitical tensions and their impact on energy markets have increased the correlation between oil prices and the US dollar index, which may delay the emergence of a clear market bottom. Still, these dynamics underscore the sector’s growing resilience as institutional flows and on-chain activity continue to deepen.
Investors should interpret this stage of the cycle as an opportunity for strategic accumulation, especially as Bitcoin balances on exchanges decline and large holders continue to absorb supply. In the short term, I expect BTC to trade in the $68,000-$84,000 range as the market stabilizes.
Ethereum is likely to follow a similar consolidation pattern, with ETH trading in the $1,800-$2,500 range, supported by continued ecosystem growth and growing adoption in DeFi and broader on-chain applications. Together, these conditions suggest a market moving toward a healthier structure in which long-term capital gradually rebuilds its positions.
Fed in the spotlight
It is worth noting that investors are currently paying a lot of attention to the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for March 17-18, 2026. The market is eagerly awaiting the Dot Plot projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz actually subside, inflation pressure may ease somewhat, which would open the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. Bitcoin and altcoins will certainly feel this.
