February 6, 2026 went down in history as a testing day for the “Bitcoin standard” strategy, when the price of the oldest cryptocurrency fell below the barrier of USD 65,000. The ten largest public companies holding BTC in their reserves recorded combined paper losses of more than $10 billion, sparking debate about the sustainability of the model based on the accumulation of digital assets.
Strategy model crisis
Strategy, the undisputed leader in corporate adoption with a portfolio of 713,502 BTC, finds itself in an unprecedented market situation. The mNAV indicator, which determines the ratio of the company’s stock market valuation to the pure value of the cryptocurrencies it holds, dropped to 0.85x. This means that the giant’s shares were valued lower than the Bitcoin resources themselves in its treasury. For years, investors have paid a handsome premium for BTC exposure through a traditional brokerage account, but February’s decline exposed the risks associated with balance sheet leverage.
Analysts suggest that we are dealing with a breakdown of the so-called flywheel. Michael Saylor’s strategy was to issue new shares at a high premium to raise capital to purchase more crypto units. At the current discount, each new issue, instead of building value for shareholders, leads to their dilution. An additional risk factor is debt in the form of convertible bonds, incurred when Bitcoin was close to ATH (All-Time High), i.e. the historical peak above USD 126,000. If the price does not return to the upward trend, the company may be forced to repay billions of dollars in cash liabilities.
The specter of miners capitulating amid rising mining costs
Equally disturbing signals are coming from the mining sector. With the Bitcoin price at $64,380.50, the price is approximately 20% below the estimated cost of production, which currently averages $87,000. This disparity historically heralds a capitulation phase in which miners are forced to sell off inventories to maintain operational liquidity.
MARA Holdings’ moves attracted particular attention. On-chain data shows that the company moved 1,318 BTC worth approximately $86.9 million to various entities, including the Two Prime trading platform. While such transfers may serve as collateral for USD loans or rotation in custody systems, the market interprets them as an indication of a potential sale. The drop in the network’s total computing power, or hashrate, from 1.15 Terahash/s to below 950 Terahash/s confirms that smaller players are already shutting down unprofitable machines.
Diversification as the only effective shelter
Despite general pessimism, some entities are highly resistant to market volatility. Companies such as Coinbase and Galaxy Digital have maintained high market premiums despite the decline in the value of their crypto holdings. Their strength lies in diversified business models:
- Coinbase: It focuses on trading fees, staking and infrastructure for institutions where BTC is merely an addition to the balance sheet.
- Galaxy Digital: It generates stable revenues from investment banking and asset management, which allows it to cushion declines in the valuation of its own portfolio.
- Hut 8 Mining: It is diversifying its activities towards data centers for artificial intelligence, using cheap energy for purposes other than just mining.
- Metaplanet: Despite losses of USD 1.33 billion, the Japanese company is trying to make up for the deficit through currency arbitrage and generating operating profit in yen.
The February crash showed that pure Bitcoin accumulation is a high-risk strategy that, in the “deep discount” phase, exposes companies to enormous pressure from investors and regulators. In the new market environment, the winners are those who can generate cash regardless of the current digital gold rate.
