Will Donald Trump fulfill his promises? The future of bitcoin depends on the US president

Donald Trump will begin his rule in the USA on January 20. During the election campaign, he promised crypto voters a lot. So much so that the future BTC rate now depends largely on its policy. So won’t it disappoint investors now?

Current situation: calm before the storm?

The Bitcoin price, but also the prices of leading altcoins, have recently fallen significantly – many analysts point out that this is a “customary” correction before the start of the term of office of the new US president. And in fact, almost exactly 4 years ago, the chart looked similar to today.

However, there were actually reasons for the decline: we saw excessive optimism on the market, and the Fed announced that it would cut interest rates in 2025 to a lesser extent than originally planned (a cut of only 50 basis points, not as much as 100), and Macroeconomic data appeared that could have greatly confused investors.

This is about the US PMI, which allows you to measure activity in industry – the new reading showed that it remains below 50 points, which suggests economic problems. This would mean that the Fed should increase the scale of cuts. The problem is that shortly afterwards the ISM index data was made public, which showed an improvement – a jump to 54.1 from 52.1. The funniest thing is that both studies concern the same economic activity in the US. Both indices differ in methodology and it is not really known which one should be taken into account. So the market started scratching its heads and wondering what exactly was going on. This lack of clarity has led to declines in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. More precisely: the latter started to rise in price after the PMI was published, but fell after the ISM was made public.

As for the Fed, however, the situation seems certain, at least in the medium term: at the end of January the stops will remain intact. This is according to Fed Watch Tool data. Current asset valuations already factor in this decision.

Crypto-President Donald Trump

The economic situation is moderately favorable for cryptocurrencies, but the key to growth will be the real policy of Trump, who will take office on January 20. And here comes the first important information. Supposedly, in the first hours of his presidency, the Republican is to issue a decree that could fuel growth. If you believe Washington Post, Trump’s team has a document ready to tell the SEC to rescind SAB 121.

Trump’s team has made clear this is a priority

— she told the editorial office Washington Post a person from the Republican’s entourage.

But what is it about? For the liberalization of regulations that currently make it difficult for banks to store cryptoassets. Yes, American banks will in practice be able to deposit bitcoins and altcoins with them!

It’s not supposed to end there. Trump is to press the CFTC and SEC, i.e. the government agencies that have the most to say in the context of cryptocurrencies, to create special working groups for cryptocurrencies. In addition, subsequent decrees are intended to support the DeFi market.

These are all journalistic reports so far, which no one has officially commented on, but if Trump goes in this direction, it could be interesting. Moreover, the media also reported other important “gossip”. Apparently, Bo Hines, head of the president-elect’s cryptocurrency council, talked to important people from the blockchain industry and asked them to send him ideas regarding further decrees that the new president could sign.

What did Trump promise?

It is worth recalling that during the campaign, Trump promised to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, help develop the mining industry, free Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, and defend Americans’ right to “self-custody”, i.e. independent, anonymous storage of cryptocurrencies. His sons are also behind a blockchain platform that is intended to challenge banks, which further increases his credibility in this field.

Everything sounds beautiful. But you should remember one thing: the US president is not a dictator. He has a lot of power, certainly more than his Polish counterpart, but many forces – both political and business – will influence Trump’s policy. He may simply not be able to fully deliver on the promises he so generously announced during the election campaign. Investors should take this into account!

A particularly controversial idea is the one regarding the creation of a BTC reserve. Cryptocurrency is still something new in the world of finance, so adding it to reserves raises conflicting emotions. In addition, the Republican Party is a large group, actually a coalition of many circles. Not all of them may be in favor of Trump’s idea, which requires congressional approval.

So, as you can see, the environment in which Trump will operate from Monday will be complicated. He may not be able to fulfill his bitcoin promises. Does this end the BTC boom?

What’s next for the course?

Well, does the BTC rate actually depend on the White House’s policy? Yes! But – as shown in the post on X above – a bitcoin boom can take place even when the US authorities are not very favorable to cryptocurrencies. You observed this 4 years ago, as well as the correction before the presidential inauguration.

The chart below shows how much the BTC rate increased after Trump was elected president. His first pro-Bitcoin decisions could provoke a similar pump that would raise the price by over USD 100,000.

Summary

So we have this situation: Trump will take over in a fairly good economic situation, and he plans to “tune it up” with his customs policy, and he also has plans to implement pro-blockchain reforms. Currently, there is a correction on the market, possibly the last chance to buy a relatively “cheap” bitcoin. As history shows, after the inauguration of a new US president, there was always a boom. We can therefore conclude that there is a significant chance of growth. However, the scale of the boom will depend on what exactly the new White House administration will do.

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