The U.S. Senate likely won’t be able to pass the Clarity Act before its August recess. This is another blow to hopes for a quick order in the US cryptocurrency market. At the same time, Japan is changing the legal status of cryptoassets, Russia is preparing a controlled trade market, and Poland remains without national implementing regulations for MiCA.
Bitcoin fell to around USD 63,000 on July 28. The delay in the bill worsens the mood, but is not the main reason for the decline. The market is primarily waiting for the Federal Reserve’s decision and is reacting to the sell-off of technology companies and capital outflows from American ETFs.
What is the Clarity Act and why is the market waiting for it?
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or HR 3633, is intended to end a long-running dispute over which cryptoassets should be regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and which by the Futures Trading Commission.
The bill gives the CFTC broad authority over the spot market for “digital goods.” The SEC would retain oversight of assets considered securities and transactions that constitute investment contracts. The act also regulates the activities of stock exchanges, brokers and custodians, rules for the protection of customer assets, DeFi, stablecoins, and the rights of software developers and self-custody users.
The House of Representatives passed the Clarity Act on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 294 to 134. In May 2026, the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a vote of 15 to 9. It was supported by all 13 Republicans and two Democrats. However, this did not mean a guarantee of support in the vote of the entire Senate.
The Senate is running out of time
On July 22, Senator Cynthia Lummis published a new text of 616 pages. It combines solutions prepared by the banking and agriculture committees. The document also includes regulations on anti-money laundering, consumer protection and the prohibition of offering profits on inactive stablecoin balances.
The biggest dispute still concerns ethical regulations. The bill prohibits high-ranking officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring cryptoassets in exchange for remuneration. However, what is controversial is the fact that some of these provisions are scheduled to expire on January 20, 2029.
Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate. To overcome the procedural blockade, 60 votes are needed, i.e. at least seven Democrats, assuming full support from Republicans. Meanwhile, some senators from both parties raise reservations about the provisions on stablecoins and conflicts of interest.
Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged that the bill would be unlikely to pass before the recess beginning around Aug. 7. The Senate is currently considering nominations and a package of sanctions against Russia. The next realistic window will appear in September, but the campaign before the November by-elections may make an agreement even more difficult.
Bitcoin is falling, but not only because of the Clarity Act
The bill’s delay adds another layer of uncertainty, but BTC’s current sell-off has broader bases. Investors are limiting risk ahead of the Fed’s decision, and declines in AI-related technology stocks have spilled over into cryptocurrencies. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and liquidations of leveraged positions are creating additional pressure.
The Clarity Act may be more important for Ethereum, altcoins, stablecoins, DeFi, and companies like Coinbase than for Bitcoin itself. These segments have been operating in the shadow of disputes over the classification of tokens as securities for years.
Japan is changing the rules and opening the way for ETFs
The Japanese parliament has passed a law change that moves cryptoassets from the payment services regime to the category of financial assets. This means, among others: stricter rules on the use of confidential information, disclosure obligations and unauthorized activities. The changes are scheduled to enter into force in 2027.
The new regulations also remove one of the main barriers to spot Bitcoin ETFs, but no such fund has been approved yet. A separate tax reform may reduce the maximum taxation of profits from approximately 55% to 20%. However, the lower rate is not to come into force until 2028.
Russia regulates trade but retains full control
The Russian law on digital currencies passed the State Duma on July 21 and the Federation Council on July 24. The Bank of Russia has already published draft regulations creating organized trade and the institution of a “digital depositary”. The required capital of such entities is to range from 50 to 250 million rubles.
This is not American-style liberalization. Non-qualified investors are to be subject to a limit of approximately PLN 300,000. rubles per year with one intermediary, and cryptocurrencies will still not be able to be used to pay for goods and services in Russia. However, certain settlements in foreign trade will remain permitted.
Poland was left without a national licensing path
MiCA applies directly in the European Union, but Poland has still not designated an authority responsible for licensing and supervision of cryptoasset service providers. On June 11, President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the act on the crypto-assets market for the third time. Parliamentary work on its re-adoption has not been completed.
What does this mean for the Polish investor?
Poles do not lose access to cryptocurrencies, but they should check more carefully what license a given platform operates on and which company actually provides the service. Entry into the former Polish register alone is not sufficient.
For the industry, the consequences are more serious. Without a national CASP procedure, Polish companies are forced to look for licenses in other countries, transfer part of their activities abroad or close them down. In this way, Poland loses taxes, jobs and competences that could remain in the country.
The Clarity Act shows that even the world’s largest economy can get stuck in a political dispute. The difference is that Japan and Russia are already moving their projects to the implementation stage. After three vetoes, Poland still has not even created a functioning national licensing path.
