The bitcoin market is still boring. But that could change soon. We all have a series of political and economic events ahead of us that could shake things up a lot.
Is Bitcoin a boring investment today?
If you look at the bitcoin chart, you can see that there is not much happening in the market. There was a big sell-off in early August, but since then we haven’t really seen any big drops or gains. But that could change in a matter of days. The reason is a series of economic and political events.
Key events
Let me start by saying that this week you will learn various new data from the US labor market, which will show you exactly what the situation looks like overseas. If it turns out that unemployment has risen again, markets may react with declines. On the one hand, this will be bad news, because the risk of recession will increase, on the other – good news, because it will increase the chance of a 50 bp cut in interest rates, not just 25. The optimal option? Maintaining the unemployment level from the previous month.
What can you already learn about the state of the labor market? So far, we know that there has been a decrease in the number of job offers. This rather heralds bad data on the state of employment.
This is not the end. On September 11, we are to learn new data on inflation in the US. If it continues to fall, we will probably expect increases.
The day before, on September 10, voters in America will be able to watch the Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate. This will be the first such clash of the presidential candidates. The Republican’s success will make bitcoin shine again. And actually, this scenario seems more likely. Harris is said to dislike the media. Besides, her team has so far kind of hidden her away. She does not give frequent interviews. In terms of polls, the chances of the Republican and Democratic candidates winning are almost equal.
This is not the end of political events. On September 18, the court will announce the verdict in Trump’s case. This one concerns falsifying business documents in order to hide the fact that he gave money to his former mistress so that she would not publicize their brief romance. It is doubtful that the businessman will be convicted (and it would not change much: American law does not prohibit a politician from running for office even from… prison). However, the market may shake that day.
And finally, the least important piece of information, but still worth mentioning: CZ, the founder of Binance, is being released on September 29. It is doubtful that this will lead to any increases. Maybe symbolic – it is more of a curiosity for day traders.
Fed to decide bitcoin’s fate
Finally, I will return to the issue of “The Fed and the Bitcoin Case”. The Fed Watch Tool chart shows that the probability of a 25 bp rate cut is already 55%, 50 bp – 45%. Yesterday, the difference was 2 percentage points. The chance of a 25 bp cut was 57%, 50 – 43%. These data change almost every moment. It will be worth watching them on Friday, when we will know all the data on the US labor market.
