Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises are ahead of us. As warned by the former Ukrainian ambassador in Belarus, “a group of troops with a plan of a Russian hit on the Baltic States is formed in the Belarusian direction.” So will the new stage of war be started soon in Europe – this time with NATO?
Attack on NATO countries?
In mid-September, Russian-Belarusian military exercises ZAPAD-2025 are planned. This is nothing new, because this type of maneuvers have been organized cyclically and since 2009, but this time they are raised by special fears. Why?
First let’s explain what we know about exercises. Over 13,000 soldiers are to take part in them. Officially, because the Estonian interview gave a much larger number – 100,000 military. It is concerned that Russia had previously used this type of “exercises” as an introduction to the war in Ukraine.
The atmosphere is heated by experts. The head of the German federal intelligence service Bruno Kahl said in the media that Russia may want to test how art. 5 NATO, so in practice whether the US will help their allies.
In the Belarusian direction, a group of troops is formed with a plan of a Russian blow to the Baltic States. It will not be a blow to Ukraine. The Russians perfectly understand that hitting Ukraine will not have any effect now. The Baltic direction will be important to Russia. And is extremely important for strengthening NATO, European countries and the EU
– says the diplomat Roman Bestrime.
Objective? Suwałki isthmus
Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer, also warns against such a scenario. He, in turn, believes that Russia may want to attack the Suwałki isthmus.
It is about the territory of Poland located around Suwałki, Augustów and Sejn, which is a merger of the Baltic countries with Poland and the rest of NATO countries. In addition, he separates the Królewiec region in Russia and Belarus, which is an ally of Russia. So this is a key place for military operations, because its mastery by the Russians can make the Baltic States cut off from NATO allies. Moscow would like to occupy the region for another reason: thanks to this it will have a “bridge” leading to Kaliningrad, which is currently cut off from Russia’s “main”.
Is we threatened with war?
So is we threatened with war? I will calm down immediately: Russia is unlikely to decide on an open conflict with NATO until it ends the fighting in Ukraine. However, he can provoke, send his troops towards the isthmus to scare societies from the Baltic countries and Poland. It cannot even be ruled out that the Polish or Lithuanian border will cross some “lost” military unit. However, these are all elements of the hybrid conflict. At least so far.
