New data obtained from the decentralized Polymarket platform suggest that Donald Trump will win this year's US elections.
Polymarket helps in public opinion research in the USA
Polymarket is a decentralized betting platform for generating predictions. It uses blockchain technology to increase the transparency and security of this process. What does her data on the US presidential election show?
The electoral situation in the US is slowly becoming clearer. The Democratic Party will be represented by Joe Biden in the elections. The face of the Republicans will most likely be Donald Trump. Although the latter formation is only at the primary stage, it is almost certain that the former president will win. For example, we already know the voting results from Iowa. There, Trump gained a huge lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley.
The Polymarket platform now also helps predict who will win the power struggle. According to its new data, the probability of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party nomination is as high as 89%. Interestingly, Nikki Haley (6%), not DeSantis, came in second.
According to the platform's research, Joe Biden has a 78% chance of being nominated. California Governor Gavin Newsom only has a 6% chance of doing so, the same as Haley.
Who will become president?
However, the above data only confirms that we will see Trump and Biden in the main clash. However, everyone who follows the US political scene knows this. It gets more interesting when we consider who will win the final fight for the White House on November 5, 2024.
The Polymarket survey results suggest it will be Trump. He has a 48% chance of doing so. Biden has 36%. The analysis also takes into account candidates who will probably be eliminated in the pre-race. Thus, the probability of Haley winning the general election is 3%. The analysis also takes into account Vivek Ramaswamy (2%), who, however, suspended his campaign a few days ago. According to Polymarket, Robert Kennedy Jr. he also only has a 2% chance of winning.
Data from another betting platform, Oddschecker, show that the probability of Trump winning the election is 45.5% and Biden only 33.3%. Nikki Haley has a 5.9% chance of winning. The Bet Ohio website also points to Trump's triumph (46%) and Biden's defeat (36%).
