Yesterday Donald Trump – Vladimir Putin met. Most of the media suggest that the talks failed. However, it is different, but this does not mean that we have something to enjoy!
Conflict roots
The presidents of the US and Russia talked about peace in Ukraine in Alaska. More precisely: this was the official message. Only that the words that were given after the meeting show that the context was much wider, it is possible that even Poland.
I will start with the fact that the war in Ukraine is not really a conflict only about our eastern neighbor – it is about including Russia in the European security system, and thus “returning” its influence zone, which she lost in 1989.
Why such a shocking conclusion? Just thoroughly examine the roots of the current war. On December 17, 2021, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia published a message from which we learned that two days earlier, on December 15, a document was transferred to the USA regarding Europe, which included “security guarantees”. The entries were, among others Moscow demanding the ending of NATO expansion (“especially to the East, especially in the post -Soviet area”), not to create bases and not conduct military activity in Ukraine and other post -Soviet countries not members of the alliance or withdrawal of allied troops, from countries that joined NATO after May 1997 (i.e. after signing the act of NATO -Russia). In addition, the buffer zone was to be determined around the borders of Russia and its allies, where exercises and other military activity will be not allowed.
Everything sounds seemingly innocent. Except that the US could not agree to these conditions (which went down in history as the Ultimatum of Lavrov, from the name of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia). If they said “yes”, it would mean the destruction of the current order in Europe and – as diplomats define nicely – including Russia in the continent’s defense system.
In other words, Moscow wanted to return and to the realities of the USSR, and further – to Napoleonic times, when she was one of the powers that decided what was happening in Europe.
There are many indications that this is the reason for the war in Ukraine – the desire to break the primacy of the US on the continent. And worse, the Americans lose this war.
Destruction
The power is a country that has agency: it controls other people’s economies, capital flows (broadly understood), affects geopolitical situations. The USA is such a country. I will add.
The problem is that Washington failed to scare Russia. She did not win the postulates from the Lavrov Ultimatum for herself, so she answered with an attack to Ukraine. It is true that she failed to defeat Kiev quickly, but she showed that she was not afraid of the White House. Then, when the Ukrainian side suddenly began to gain on the front and conducted a counteroffensive, Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons and – as we already know – the US blocked further military activities of allies – the counteroffensive was completed. I will not mention the celebration of sanctions.
Russia simply shows the world that the US is no longer able to stop it. And now it is: Donald Trump meets personally with Vladimir Putin!
President of America with his counterpart in Russia is important: for months, and even years, Polish media suggested that Putin is “Parias”, nobody wants to talk to him anymore. And here is a surprise: the Russian leader returns to the salons. This is another proof of breaking the resistance of the West. Not only that, the words that fell in Alaska should freeze our blood in our veins.
When I looked at Polish information portals today, I decided that some journalists did not understand what was going on. It is about emphasizing that nothing like that happened in Alaska, no decisions were made (because they were not announced and both presidents suggested!). Truths can be found, however, between the lines.
Putin said during a press conference that Russia and the USA “must unconditionally guarantee the security of Ukraine.” Yes, the attacker is now to guarantee the victim of safety! Not only that, the Russian leader added that he hopes that “Ukraine and Europe will not try to” sabotage conversations of powers.
We expect Kiev and European Capitals to refer to all this constructively and will not create any obstacles, they will not attempt to disturb the emerging progress through provocations and behind -the -scenes intrigues
he warned.
This is a clear signal: Europe and the current elites from Kiev do not have much to say here – Russia and the USA will decide about the new shape of the region.
He also strengthened Trump’s narrative that if he were the president of the USA in 2022, the war would not break out at all.
Today we hear that President Trump says that if he were president, there would be no war. I think it could actually be. I absolutely confirm these words. Because in total with President Trump we managed to build a very good, real, specific contact
he added.
Summary
The last peak of Trump-Putin showed that Americans need Russia as a partner and although they are far from displaying the white flag, they can go to concessions. Worst of all, potentially at the expense of Eastern and Central Europe, and certainly Ukraine.
The White House needs Russia in his competition with China, and the latter showed that he is a strong player who can demand a lot in return.
