In less than three weeks, the bitcoin network will halve. So far, the division of the reward for miners started the main phase of the bull market. Will it be the same this time? And what will be the ATH of this cycle?
BTC rate and halving
According to TradingView data, the bitcoin price has increased by approximately 658% since the last halving. So if history were to repeat itself, just before the halving in 2028, we will pay as much as USD 434,280 for 1 BTC.
At the same time, it should be remembered that bitcoin's growth after halving is decreasing from cycle to cycle. By the time of the first halving in 2012, the value of Bitcoin had risen from virtually $0 to $12.50, a jump of over 12,400%. After four years, the price of bitcoin increased by 5,200% to $650 and by 1,200% to $8,500 during the 2020 halving.
Thus, as you can see, the average price increases of bitcoin in subsequent cycles decreased by approximately 45%. If this trend of diminishing returns continues, Bitcoin will provide us with “only” a 360% profit in the future, which would result in a BTC price of $303,600 at the halving in 2028.
Do we know the future?
So is everything certain and clear now? Can we even calculate the ATH of this bull market? NO. Foundations need to be added to this. And these have changed. A new group of investors is entering the market and starting their adventure with cryptocurrencies using ETFs.
Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, sheds yet another light on the matter in an interview with Cointelegraph:
Considering the halving and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence to support a positive correlation between the halving event and the BTC price. However, the past can be interpreted in many different ways. I certainly hope we can hit the $435,000 mark by 2028, but I wouldn't bet too much.
Despite this skepticism, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, a six-digit BTC price seems possible. Reason? As I suggested, Bitcoin ETFs may overtake gold ETFs in terms of volumes.
Bitcoin ETFs are already growing at a much faster rate than gold ETFs when they first appeared on the market in 2004. River's Sam Wouters pointed out that BTC ETFs are growing as much as 5 times faster than their gold counterparts.
To summarize, Bitcoin ETFs may have changed the rules that govern the cryptocurrency market. Whether this is the case, we will find out 100% in some time. The answer will be ATH this cycle. In turn, the market may suggest that the bitcoin price reached a new record level even before the halving.
