Bitcoin's future and three scenarios

Recent dynamic movements on the Bitcoin chart have begun to raise questions about whether the current cycle will end sooner than the last quarter of 2025. We asked an expert about this issue. Sebastian Seliga, Head of Trading and Analysis at zondacrypto, shared with us his vision for 2024, presenting three scenarios that could shape the future of bitcoin (BTC) and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Optimistic scenario: strong, long-term bull market

Let's start with the most optimistic scenario that may lie ahead. So I give the floor to Sebastian Seliga:

The scenario assumes that bitcoin can reach impressive price levels, even up to USD 150,000. Such a price rally would be the result of a traditional bull cycle, during which the cryptocurrency not only breaks through its historical high but also sets new price records.

Selig estimates the probability of this scenario at 60%.

It is worth adding that USD 150,000 is only a 100% jump from the current ATH of USD 73,000. This can be considered a very conservative forecast. Assuming, of course, that we still have a typical, almost two-year bull market ahead of us.

Market oversaturation scenario: too much, too fast

It may be more intense, but that makes it worse. The market will experience a massive inflow of capital. Although at first glance this may seem to be a positive development, Seliga warns that it could lead to a market crisis and, consequently, a larger and earlier downward correction than the market expected. However, he believes that there is only a 20% chance of this scenario coming true.

Violent boom: strong, dynamic, but short

The third option that Seliga considers possible is a scenario characterized by a short but extremely intense growth cycle.

This model predicts that the market will quickly be flooded with capital, causing prices to rise rapidly but fall just as quickly. This development could lead to an even shorter bull cycle than has been seen in the past

– explains the stock exchange expert.

Sebastian Seliga warns

Seliga emphasizes that his analysis is based on an in-depth understanding of the market and the history of its cycles. He also warns investors against being too optimistic, mentioning earlier periods that ended sooner than many expected, prompting caution and a well-thought-out investment strategy. The cryptocurrency market is full of potential, but also dangers. Investors should take a differentiated approach, preparing for both possible next price peaks and unexpected twists.