Key takeaways:
- The Fed’s decision, PCE inflation and data on the US economy will be crucial for the liquidity of the dollar, and therefore for the valuation of bitcoin and ether.
- The results of companies such as Microsoft and Meta may translate into sentiment on the Nasdaq, which still strongly correlates with the cryptocurrency market.
- The combination of weak growth, high inflation and uncertainty around Fed policy could trigger sharp moves and set the trend for cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks.
The coming days on financial markets promise to be one of the most important moments of this quarter. A series of key macroeconomic publications and results of the largest technology companies may trigger sudden movements not only in shares, but also in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin and ether are increasingly reacting to data from the US economy, and the coming week will provide an exceptionally large number of them.
Tuesday: Consumers starting to get scared?
The first signal will be the reading of consumer confidence. A weaker result means that households are limiting their spending, which affects the foundations of economic growth. For cryptocurrencies, this is a mixed signal – on the one hand, a weaker economy may increase expectations for monetary policy easing, which favors risky assets. On the other hand, risk aversion is growing, which often leads to the outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market.
Wednesday: Fed and a decision that could change everything
For cryptocurrencies, the scenario is simple:
- hawkish Fed (higher rates) this is downward pressure on BTC and ETH,
- dovish Fed (pause or gentle tone) means a potential rebound and inflow of capital.
The cryptocurrency market remains particularly sensitive to dollar liquidity – and this directly depends on the Fed’s policy.
Microsoft and Meta will publish the results on the same day. In the case of Meta, the expected EPS in the range of USD 7.18-7.24 with revenues of approximately USD 60.2 billion shows the scale of market expectations.
Why is this important for cryptocurrencies? Because:
- the Big Tech sector is currently the main carrier of risk-on sentiment,
- growing spending on AI (as before at Alphabet) may reduce profitability and cause adjustments,
- declines of the “Magnificent Seven” often translate into declines in BTC.
The correlation between Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies remains high.
Thursday: PCE inflation – a key Fed indicator
- higher inflation means that the chances of price increases increase – this is negative for cryptocurrencies,
- lower inflation this means more room for easing, which is positive for the market.
It is this reading that may determine the medium-term direction of bitcoin.
Also Thursday: GDP and the specter of stagflation
The GDP reading for the second quarter (consensus 2.1-2.2%) will be a test of the condition of the American economy. The worst case scenario for markets is weak economic growth and high inflationi.e. classic stagflation. In such an environment, the Fed has limited room for maneuver and investors avoid risky assets.
Friday: consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
At the end of the week, we will learn the University of Michigan’s index, which measures households’ inflation expectations. These are the expectations that the Fed is trying to control.
If consumers expect higher inflation:
- pressure is growing on the Fed to maintain restrictive policy,
- which has a negative effect on cryptocurrencies.
Summary
The combination of all this data means that the cryptocurrency market is facing a period of increased volatility. Bitcoin can react not only to single publications, but to a combination of them.
The most important factors to observe:
- Fed’s tone after the rate decision,
- PCE inflation reading,
- the condition of Big Tech and the risk-on sentiment,
- signals of economic slowdown.
In practice, this means one thing: the coming days may determine the direction for cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. Investors should prepare for dynamic movements and increased uncertainty.
