BTC and ETH are making up for the losses from the first week of June. The MiCA transition period ends in the EEA

The cryptocurrency market is actively recovering from the deep decline in the first week of June. Bitcoin is oscillating around the level of $65,000, while Ethereum is trying to permanently return to the area of $1,800. Although recent days have seen green accents on the daily charts, investors are still very cautious, waiting for a more lasting upward trend to form.

The previous episode of analysis from Bitcoin.pl can be found here.

News from the market

Mixed moods ahead of full MiCA implementation

The transition period before full implementation of the European MiCA regulation ends on the last day of June. Statistics reveal the brutal reality for many entities: it is estimated that approximately 75% of companies that did not operate under national regulatory regimes before MiCA will irrevocably lose their status. The scale of the market is best illustrated by the register – out of over 3,000 entities registered in the European Union in 2024, only about 194 currently have a license. Worse still, in Poland, after the third reading of the project by the president, a supervisor has still not been officially appointed, which is why the Polish Financial Supervision Authority is not accepting applications. This puts the domestic stock exchanges in the worst position in the entire Community.

Tether outside the regulatory mainstream in the EEA

As a direct result of the new legal environment, Tether (USDT) – the largest stablecoin in the world – has found itself outside the mainstream of the regulated cryptocurrency market in the European Economic Area. Although USDT globally remains the undisputed giant with a capitalization of approximately USD 186 billion (representing almost 60% of the total stablecoin market share), its availability on licensed platforms in Europe has been drastically limited. In practice, this forces capital to migrate towards regulated alternatives such as USDC.

The breakthrough US-Iran agreement and the market reaction

There is positive news from the world of geopolitics. The US and Iran are to sign a peace agreement on June 19, which extends the truce between the powers by 60 days and opens the way to technical negotiations around the Iranian nuclear program. A key element of the agreement is the lifting of the naval blockade and the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Cryptocurrency markets reacted positively to these reports – in a seven-day period, the price of Bitcoin increased by 4%, while Ethereum gained 1.7%.

Blocking US AI models stimulates decentralized alternatives

The US government made the radical decision to completely block access to advanced artificial intelligence models Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 due to cybersecurity concerns. Due to technological barriers, it was impossible to cut off only foreign users, which resulted in the shutdown of services for everyone. Anthropic is fighting this decision in court, but the incident highlights the risks associated with centralizing AI systems. The market vacuum immediately began to be filled by decentralized projects. In just one day, platform tokeny Venice rose 14% to $16.37 and the Morpheus token (MOR) jumped 21% to $2.28.

Market indicators and sentiment

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 22 pts (1 week ago: 9 pts) – A state of extreme fear. Although there is a visible improvement compared to last week, the market has not been able to get out of the zone of deep anxiety for many weeks.

Fear & Greed Index of traditional markets: 39 points (a week ago: 26 points) – Fear. The situation improved on a weekly basis, but on a monthly basis the change is very clear (at that time the indicator was 62 points, signaling risk appetite).

US interest rate: 3.75% – The level was maintained unchanged.

US inflation rate: 4.2% – The American economy is clearly moving away from the inflation target of 2%.

Dollar Index (DXY): 99.5 points

M2 money supply: USD 22.8 trillion (slight increase).

VIX Volatility Index: 16.41 points (decrease).

Total market capitalization: USD 2.24 trillion (a slight rebound from last week).

Technical analysis: BTC, ETH and TAO

Bitcoin (BTC)

On a weekly basis, the current price is USD 65,859.9. The weekly increase is symbolic for now and amounts to approximately 0.2%, so you should wait until the candle is fully formed. The EMA 20 and EMA 50 moving averages continue to decline, and the long-term EMA 200 has flattened. The key pro-growth signal will be the potential breakthrough of the EMA 200 by the candles from below. Purchase volumes indicate that fresh capital is flowing in much slower than it fled at the beginning of June (the structure resembles the price behavior from the first week of February).

On the daily time frame, the price is below the short-term average. All major averages (short, medium and long term) are declining slightly. The Accumulation/Distribution ratio confirms that the market is still distributing assets. However, positive signals are coming from the oscillators: on June 13, the MACD crossed the signal line from below, generating upward momentum, and the RSI is climbing up, reaching the level of 43.11. The ATR indicator declined, which means limited volatility.

Key Supports: $60,000, $55,500.

Optimistic scenario: Breaking the lower limit of the previously drawn parallel channel from below.

Ethereum (ETH)

On the weekly time frame, the price is USD 1,795, which means a clearer 5% rebound from the beginning of the week than on BTC. On the daily time frame, the market rate equaled the short-term average. Even though the EMA 50 and EMA 200 are slightly lower, there are subtle signs for buyers on the chart. Similarly to Bitcoin, on June 13, there was a bullish signal line crossing within the MACD indicator, and the RSI is rising and currently stands at 45.35.

Key Supports: $2000, $1600, $550.

Optimistic scenario: Price returns to the interior of the historical parallel channel.

Altcoin of the week: Bittensor (TAO)

This week, investors’ attention shifts to the Bittensor (TAO) project, which is the flagship beneficiary of the merger of artificial intelligence technologies and cryptocurrencies.

Market position: 40th place in the CoinGecko ranking in terms of capitalization. The current market price is $255.82, representing a 24% gain on a weekly basis and an impressive 153.5% jump since the project’s launch.

Tokenomy: The maximum supply of the token is 21 million pieces (similar to the Bitcoin network). There are currently exactly 9,597,490 TAO in circulation. The all-time high (ATH) above $750 occurred in March 2024 during the height of the AI narrative. In 2025–2026, the project recorded a massive increase in institutional interest.

Architecture and uniqueness: The network operates based on Proof of Stake, but the system is distinguished by its proprietary Yuma Consensus. Validators do not just approve blocks, but also assess the quality of AI models and services provided in the so-called subnets (Subnets). The system aggregates these notes through a mechanism stake-weighted median (the higher the stake, the greater the voting weight, which prevents manipulation). Rewards in TAO tokens go to the most effective creators.

Pricing factors and plans: The increase in value is stimulated by, among others, the number of active subnets, TAO blocking in staking and the demand for real AI services. Development plans include the implementation of the Dynamic TAO mechanism (optimization of capital allocation), improvement of Yuma Consensus, development of the TAO Flow protocol (emission dependent on real capital flows, not the valuation itself) and the construction of an autonomous economy of AI agents competing in the network.

On-chain data and ETFs

Outflow from ETFs: There is a prolonged negative trend. American bitcoin spot funds recorded a negative balance (Netflow) of -82.3 million dollarswhich means the 6th consecutive week of low tides. Ethereum is doing even worse, with a negative netflow of -$2.8 million, marking the 8th consecutive week of decline.

Liquidations in the futures market: The last 24 hours brought more pressure on the Ethereum market, where positions worth $88.6 million were liquidated (with a clear predominance of short positions – Short worth $56.5 million). On Bitcoin, the total liquidation value was $50 million, with mainly long positions suffering (Long worth $33 million).

Stablecoin capitalization: A reflection of market anxiety over the status of USDT in Europe is the decline in the total market cap of stablecoins – nearly $207 million has evaporated from the market in the last 7 days.

On-chain data: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have recently recorded a slight increase and amount to approximately 2,701,000 BTC. The daily network flow indicator (Netflow) systematically turns negative – on June 15, over 3,800 BTC flowed from the exchanges, and yesterday over 800 BTC.

MVRV Z-Score: This key on-chain indicator (measuring the ratio of market capitalization to realized capitalization, smoothed by the standard deviation) currently ranges between 0 and 1. This means neutral sentiment with a slight bullish deviation. Historically, these levels have indicated good zones for long-term asset accumulation, away from phases of market euphoria. At the same time, there is a further outflow of funds from Ethereum staking protocols.