It will sooner kill traditional finance. For several days now, there has been a lot of speculation about whether a quantum computer will be able to crack Bitcoin. These questions were raised by Google’s latest creation, the Willow quantum processor. In this article, I will primarily present you the basics of BTC cryptography versus the capabilities of modern computers and quantum processors, and I will also prove why you don’t have to worry about your BTC – unless you keep it on the exchange or spread the seed to your friends 😉
Google introduces Willow to the world, a quantum processor crossing the next frontier
The year 2024 ends with a big bang in the technology and cryptocurrency industries. Euphoria is mixed with fear because we have just celebrated BTC breaking the USD 100,000 mark per coin, and today there are many tweets/posts/social media entries announcing the end of cryptocurrencies due to the breakthrough from Google. The Willow quantum processor presented on December 9 is indeed a milestone in the development of quantum processors and computers. This processor can solve problems and tasks in five minutes, while the most powerful classical supercomputers (such as El Capitan with over 1 million CPU cores and 10 million GPUs) would need 10 septillion times more time = 10^25 years. How much is 10 septillion? As far as:
10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
The key challenge Google engineers faced was reducing the number of errors that occur in the quantum computing process. In quantum computers, the number of errors increases with the number of qubits. The new Willow chip managed to reduce errors to a minimum, marking a milestone in the field of quantum computing. Okay, but what about cryptocurrencies? When will a quantum computer kill Bitcoin? To reassure all cryptocurrency fans and enthusiasts, it is worth mentioning at the beginning what this specific type of computer is.
How does a quantum computer work?
The classic computer you are currently using (unless you are reading this on a smartphone, but that doesn’t change anything anyway) works by processing data in the form of bits that represent only two states, i.e. 0 and 1. The binary system is predictable and based on logic, however, has its limitations resulting from the characteristics of the bits themselves.
Quantum computers, in turn, use quantum mechanics to process data, giving them enormously greater computing power for specific tasks. Just like in a classical computer, everything is based on bits, in a quantum computer, the qubit is the basis. Unlike a bit, a qubit can be in the 0, 1 state or in a superposition state (0 and 1 simultaneously). If you remember the Schrödinger’s Cat experiment, this is how superposition works. A quantum computer is able to process many possible states simultaneously, which drastically increases its performance in tasks such as optimization, simulations, and solving complex problems.
Will a quantum computer kill bitcoin?
NO. At least not in the next decades, and I’ll explain why. As you well know (or are just learning), BTC uses the SHA-256 algorithm (Secure Hash Algorithm 256-bit). The algorithm generates a hash from fixed-length input data, and hashing is one-way – the original data cannot be recreated based on the hash. Each block in the Bitcoin blockchain contains a hash of the previous block, which creates continuity and prevents modification of transaction history.
Breaking the SHA-256 encryption, which is the foundation of Bitcoin cryptography, is virtually impossible for modern computers. Current supercomputers, despite their enormous computing power, would need thousands of years to conduct a full brute force attack on this security feature. For example, if the entire population of Earth used 100 computers testing a trillion hash functions per second, it would take about 77 septillion years to break SHA-256, which is much longer than the age of the universe.
Okay, but what if a quantum computer was used to perform such a brute force attack? Here it all depends on scale. The Willow processor, which was recently announced by Google, contains 105 physical qubits. It takes between 200 and 400 MILLION qubits to crack Bitcoin. Willow’s attempt to kill BTC could be comparable to opening a lock on a door with a plastic fork.
Why should banks and traditional finance be afraid of the development of quantum computers?
Although the quantum computer we have today will not do any harm to traditional finance, the development of this technology may pose a significant threat to the financial mainstream. Banks base their security on asymmetric cryptography. Moreover, they are central storage points for financial data, which makes them an attractive target for attack. If one institution is hacked, the consequences can be disastrous not only for millions of customers, but also for the stability of the entire financial system. The centralization of traditional finance makes it a system of communicating vessels, so vulnerable to large hacker attacks. Banks must therefore prepare to systematically increase security as the technology powering quantum computers increases.
Who will be the first to develop a quantum computer capable of threatening the financial system?
Although currently both traditional media and social media constantly quote information about the Willow processor from Google, it is not their first quantum processor. Google has developed such quantum processors as:
- Foxtail – 22 qubits (2016)
- Bristlecone – 72 qubits (2018)
- Sycamore – 53 qubits (2019).
These are Google’s achievements, but it turns out that China does not intend to leave the Americans alone in this field. China unveiled a 504-qubit quantum computer powered by the Xiaohong chip on December 8. However, this does not change the fact that breaking BTC encryption will still take a very long time. If you panic, remember these numbers – 504 vs 400,000,000.
Quantum computer in every home by 2030?
Definitely not. Currently, quantum computers require extremely low temperatures to maintain qubit stability. Most traditional quantum computers operate at temperatures close to absolute zero (-273.15°C) because qubits in such conditions are less susceptible to external interference. Superconductors, which are used in many quantum systems, only become effective under such extreme conditions
However, research into quantum computers that could operate at room temperature is ongoing. Scientists are testing various materials, such as diamond NV centers, which could, in theory, allow quantum computers to operate under more favorable conditions. However, this does not change the fact that you probably won’t find a quantum processor in the iPhone 20 😉
You can buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in a simple and safe way on the zondacrypto exchange.
