US inflation saved bitcoin. The BTC rate is rising, which may be… surprising

Yesterday we learned new inflation data in the US. In response, the BTC rate skyrocketed. But is it right?

Inflation in the USA

In November 2024, consumer inflation (CPI) in the US was at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. This is the highest number in four months. Additionally, it takes us further away from the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. The upward trend has been visible for three months: in September, CPI inflation amounted to 2.4%, in October – 2.6%.

Core inflation in November was at 3.3% – the same as in October and September, but higher than in August and July (3.2%).

The situation was saved only by the market consensus, which was consistent with the final result – 2.7%.

The market is also convinced that the new data means that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18. The FedWatchTool tool, which helps in “valuing” individual scenarios, indicates that the chance of a 25 bp cut is 98.6%. This is a significant jump, because a week ago the chance of a cut was approximately 25 points. percent less – the scenario of leaving rates at the current level was taken into account.

The BTC rate is rising

In response to the new news, the BTC price increased. Today, one bitcoin costs USD 100,668, which translates into a 3% price increase per day. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet regained the levels from a week ago – it still has a loss of 1.2%.

Ether did better. Since yesterday it has increased by 7%, and within 7 days by 2%. The ETH/BTC pair is at 0.039. Investors are also still converting salt into ether – the SOL/ETH pair has already dropped to 0.0586.

However, did the market react correctly in this case? On the one hand, yes, because the Fed will probably lower interest rates next week. However, there is also the other side of the coin – rising inflation should be worrying because, if this trend is not broken, it will prevent the central bank from further rate cuts.