Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn that Russia is accelerating its preparations for war with NATO. This is about the Kremlin’s hybrid actions. Will an armed conflict begin soon?
Russia is accelerating its preparations
ISW noted that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that Great Britain was preparing an operation in which a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians would launch an attack on a Ukrainian navy ship or a foreign civilian ship in a European port. It would be a provocation.
SVR’s statement is yet another false report targeting European countries such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia
– say experts who warn that such messages from Russia are appearing more and more often. A “new, consistent pattern of action” is visible.
The Kremlin “is conducting coordinated operations as part of the phase of physical and psychological preparation for a possible war.” This fits into the broader context of hybrid warfare: jamming the GPS signal, hacker attacks, arson, and violating airspace with drones or fighter jets, as we experienced in September.
This pattern suggests that Russia has entered the first stage of preparations – “phase zero” – to move to a higher level of war than it is currently pursuing, e.g., a future war between NATO and Russia
– summarized the analysts.
Will war break out in 2026?
So will Russia attack NATO countries soon? NO. ISW itself emphasizes that “it has not currently observed any indications that Russia is actively preparing for a conflict that directly threatens us.” For now, it is only preparing the foundations – it provokes, weakens the morale of opponents, tries to convince part of society that it is the “good” one and, above all, show that Europe is defenseless and helpless.
A separate type of actions are SVR messages, e.g. the one I indicated at the beginning of this text: the Kremlin authorities want to influence their citizens and convince them that the guilty parties are not Vladimir Putin and his people, but the West, which has hostile intentions towards Moscow.
War threatens us, but it is difficult to clearly answer the question of when it may break out. For now, Russia is preparing for such a variant.
