Polymarket attracts users for much longer than DeFi platforms. While this sounds like a headline paid for by the prediction platform lobby, this trend is shown by data collected by Dune Analytics. Why the happiness of prediction markets?
It’s not a matter of luck. In a sector where liquidity depends on frequent participation, poor retention is a red flag. Most DeFi projects attract users like a magnet, but lose them just as quickly. Polymarket does something different.
Why is Polymarket winning over DeFi?
The secret is in the structure. Prediction markets do not rely on abstract tokens or short-term speculation. Instead, they offer something specific: bets on real events – elections, matches, macroeconomic data releases. This creates a natural return cycle, without artificial incentives or loyalty programs.
The data collected by Dune Analytics and market maker Keyrock is brutal in its honesty. Analysts tracked monthly cohorts of new users on 275 cryptocurrency projects – from blockchain networks, through DeFi platforms, wallets, to trading applications. Result? Polymarket outperformed over 85% of protocols in terms of retention.
Bloomberg reported on Friday that Coinbase will launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets. A day later, Bitnomial received CFTC approval to “launch prediction markets”. On Tuesday, Gemini launched its own prediction marketplace in all 50 U.S. states, aiming to build an all-in-one app.
Polish perspective: cautiously with optimism
This is an interesting moment for the Polish user. Prediction markets can become a gateway to the cryptocurrency industry for people who are not necessarily interested in trading. Problem? Regulations. While the USA is opening up to prediction markets (the CFTC’s decision is a signal), European and Polish gambling regulations may effectively block access to these platforms. It is worth watching how local regulators will react to the growing popularity of this model – because if retention is an industry problem, Polymarket has just shown how to solve it.
