Key takeaways:
- BlackRock through the IBIT fund was the largest buyer of Bitcoin in the 2025 bull market. Now it is selling.
- About $3.4 billion has been lost from US Bitcoin ETFs in eleven consecutive sessions, a record since their launch in 2024.
- Additionally, Michael Saylor also sold Bitcoins for the first time in four years.
- I’m explaining whether it’s an escape from Bitcoin or something completely different.
Something has turned around. Throughout last year’s rally, it was BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, that had the market on its back. Its Bitcoin ETF, or IBIT, was buying systematically and was considered the most reliable source of demand. Today, that same fund is the biggest seller, and money is flowing out of it at a rate we haven’t seen since these products debuted. This is not a minor correction. This is a change on the part of players who have maintained the price for the last year.
Record outflow. Eleven days in a row
A Bitcoin ETF is a product listed on a stock exchange that allows you to buy exposure to Bitcoin without setting up a wallet and keeping track of the keys yourself. When investors redeem their shares, the fund must sell the corresponding portion of their Bitcoins, and this is what we call outflow. According to SoSoValue data, about $3.4 billion has been withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs in eleven consecutive sessions, which is the largest such series since their launch in 2024.
On June 1, $484 million flowed from the entire category, of which $440 million came from IBIT. A day later, IBIT accounted for approximately three-quarters of the total daily runoff. In the background, there was also a single transaction related to the BlackRock fund worth approximately $1.3 billion, described as the largest of its kind in history. Grayscale, the most expensive fund that investors sell first when sentiment deteriorates, is declining the fastest.
Why IBIT?
Here we come to a mechanism that most headlines ignore. IBIT is the smoothest and easiest way to exit a position. There is no wallet, no waiting for settlement online. You sell your shares like any other stock and you are off the market. The same convenience that made IBIT the easiest gateway to entry now makes it the easiest gateway to exit.
Therefore, when a large fund wants to quickly close an interest rate bet, it reaches for it. And this bet actually backfires. The hawkish, i.e. high-rate-oriented, tone of the US Federal Reserve and the declining chances of a June cut have pushed capital away from risky assets, and a large part of it is now flowing into artificial intelligence companies and fresh public offerings. Some analysts read this not as panic towards Bitcoin, but as cold profit-taking by players who entered much lower. Honestly, there needs to be a second side added. Since ETFs have become the main place where Bitcoin’s price is determined, their flight is hitting the price harder than ever before.
Even Saylor caved
One more element fits into the picture. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold 32 bitcoins for about $2.5 million in late May. The amount is symbolic considering the more than 843,000 bitcoins the company still holds, but it is its first such sale in four years. Michael Saylor said for years that he would never sell. At today’s rate, the company’s entire position is underwater, as it bought an average of about $75,000 for Bitcoin. As demand from ETFs wanes and the biggest corporate buyer falters, the two pillars that have held the market together are softening at the same time.
What does this mean for you
First, coolly about the risk, because it is part of this analysis, not a note at the end. Spot ETFs collectively hold nearly 1.3 million Bitcoins, or about 7% of everything that will ever be created. When the largest of them changes from a buyer to a seller, the price floor becomes thin, and subsequent outflows can push the price lower regardless of how strong the fundamentals are. This is a real threat if the series of outflows continues and Strategy actually stops buying.
In my opinion, however, there is a difference between the escape of one player and the verdict of the entire market. What we are seeing looks more like a capital rotation and a reversal of a rate bet than an assessment of Bitcoin itself. Interestingly, the newest institutional players, including pension funds, proved to be the most resilient in this sell-off. For a Polish investor, the conclusion is simple. Don’t read one headline about BlackRock as a signal for either panic or euphoric buying. Watch for one thing, the day when the series of ebbs ends. As long as the biggest buyer runs away, catching the falling knife costs money. When it returns to the demand side, only then does it make sense to talk about the bottom.
