The Chinese AI model beat Claude and GPT in the coding ranking and will be free from July 27. Wall Street went into a tailspin, and Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 before anyone could download the model.
Key takeaways:
- Kimi K3 from the Chinese Moonshot AI won the Frontend Code Arena coding ranking, overtaking Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, and from July 27 everyone will download it for free
- Friday’s panic in chipmaker stocks took bitcoin from $65,000 below $63,000; today the rate is recovering from losses of around USD 64,000
- Moonshot AI strikes iron: it is preparing an IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation of over USD 30 billion, and it suspended new subscriptions over the weekend because it could not keep up with demand
- This week, the direction of the price will be determined by the results of Alphabet, Tesla and Intel and the Fed meeting on July 28-29
Chinese company Moonshot AI released the Kimi K3 last week and announced that it will release its full weights on July 27. Scales are files that allow you to run the model on your own hardware without paying the developer. The stock market of chip manufacturers reacted with panic on Friday, and bitcoin, which has been moving to the rhythm of the technology stock market for months, fell from USD 65,000 to below USD 63,000. On Monday, the price is hovering around USD 64,000 and waiting for a continuation.
The gift that erased billions
Kimi K3 won Frontend Code Arena, a ranking in which users blindly evaluate code written by different models. It scored 1,679 Elo points and overtook Claude Fable 5 with a score of 1,631 and GPT-5.6 with a score of 1,618. In general tests, K3 is still inferior to both rivals, as Moonshot itself admits. This detail, however, was lost in the headlines. There is one message left: the Chinese have caught up with the Americans and are giving the effect away for free.
Alibaba added its share on Sunday. Its Qwen3.8 model, which the company says is second only to the Claude Fable 5, will also become open. Since better and better models are free, investors have started asking an uncomfortable question: who will pay back the hundreds of billions pumped into American AI laboratories and the chips on which they are trained? Japan’s Nikkei had its worst day since March on Friday, and the sell-off spread to everything that smells of technology.
What does bitcoin have to do with it?
I believe this is the most important lesson of the week: Bitcoin does not trade today like digital gold, but like a tech stock. There are two reasons. First, bitcoin ETFs are bought by the same managers who hold shares of AI companies. When they cut risk, they cut everywhere. Secondly, Bitcoin mines are being massively transformed into data centers for artificial intelligence and their revenues depend on the same investment cycle as Nvidia’s price.
This was clearly visible on Friday. Ether fell twice as hard as bitcoin, and the HYPE token lost 10 percent in one day. The ricochet spread throughout the market, although nothing happened in crypto itself.
Moonshot strikes while the iron is hot
Monday brought the second act. According to Bloomberg, Moonshot sent a resolution to shareholders opening the way to a stock exchange debut in Hong Kong within six months. In parallel, it is closing the financing round at a valuation of over USD 30 billion. In May, the company was worth $20 billion.
The numbers explain this rush. Moonshot’s annual revenues reached $300 million in June, up from $200 million in April, and daily sales since K3’s launch have increased at least sixfold. Over the weekend, the company stopped accepting new subscriptions because it ran out of computing power. There is a delicious irony in this: the company giving the model away for free cannot keep up with selling it on subscription. Free scales are still coming, and until then it’s more convenient to pay for a ready-made service.
What does this mean for you
If you’re holding Bitcoin, watch the Nasdaq this week, not the halving charts. Three dates will do the job for the entire calendar. The results of Alphabet, Tesla and Intel will show whether spending on AI continues to grow, because the revenues of bitcoin mines also depend on them. The Fed meeting on July 28-29 will set risk appetite. And on July 27, Kimi K3 will be available for public download and the market will check whether free Chinese AI is a revolution or just good marketing.
The signal from the market is mixed. The options market is playing for a rally to $72,000 by the end of the month, but Bitcoin’s expected volatility index is sitting in the zone that preceded May’s decline from $74,000. Inflows to ETFs have returned, but for now they are symbolic compared to the previous eight weeks of outflows. Exposure to bitcoin today is exposure to sentiment around AI, with all its consequences.
