Key conclusions
- Retail and institutional investors are increasingly choosing Bitcoin ETFs over gold-backed ones to protect capital.
- JPMorgan bank analysts notice capital turnover, which has intensified after the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- MicroStrategy’s strategy of aggressively purchasing BTC is becoming an important factor influencing the global liquidity of the cryptocurrency market.
JPMorgan’s analysis of capital turnover from gold funds
The debasement trade is gaining momentum. JPMorgan notes that May is the third consecutive month in which U.S. and global investors put more cash into Bitcoin ETFs than they withdraw from them. This is an unprecedented situation, considering that for decades gold was considered the only safe haven in times of war and unrest.
Gold lost momentum as the market began to price in the geopolitical risk associated with Iran. Analysts emphasize that outflows from gold funds have not stopped, which suggests a permanent change in sentiment. Instead of returning to the traditional metal, capital is flowing towards Bitcoin. JPMorgan experts explain this phenomenon with the growing maturity of the cryptocurrency market and the fact that BTC is easier to transfer and store than physical bars.
Institutional demand and JPMorgan futures data
Contrary to popular belief, it is not only small savers who are driving the current growth. A report by JPMorgan sheds light on the futures market. Indicators based on data from the CME exchange and platforms offering perpetual contracts have reached historic highs. This is clear evidence that large institutions, hedge funds and professional players managing huge portfolios have entered the game.
These institutions also use the funding rate. This is a mechanism that equalizes the contract price with the market price of the cryptocurrency. When it is positive, holders of long positions pay holders of short positions. Stable and high indicators in this area confirm analysts’ belief that demand has solid foundations and does not result solely from temporary euphoria.
New forecast for the role of MicroStrategy in 2026
An important piece of the puzzle is the work of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. The company is no longer perceived only as a technology company, but as a corporate Bitcoin investment vehicle. JPMorgan calculates that if the current pace of purchases is maintained, MicroStrategy’s capital expenditure on BTC purchases could reach $30 billion per year. The company often finances these purchases by issuing convertible bonds, which allows it to leverage positions without having to sell existing resources.
MicroStrategy’s ownership structure is almost perfectly divided between the retail sector and investment funds. Thanks to this, smaller players who do not want or cannot buy ETF units buy shares of the company, gaining indirect exposure to Bitcoin’s volatility. This volatility, i.e. the range of price fluctuations at a given time, remains high, which for many investors is an opportunity for higher rates of return than in the case of stable but slow gold.
The impact of the macroeconomic environment on investors’ decisions
The current situation on financial markets is determined by the hawkish policy of central banks. The term “hawkish” refers to the tendency of officials to keep interest rates high to combat core inflation (a measure of price increases excluding the most volatile items, such as food and energy). Investors fear that if federal funds rates remain high for too long, the economy could enter a recession, which would in turn force governments to implement more stimulus packages that would weaken the currency.
It is in this environment that Bitcoin begins to shine as digital gold. Spot volume, i.e. the real value of cryptocurrency purchase and sale transactions with immediate delivery, remains at levels that allow large players to enter and exit positions without unduly influencing the price. JPMorgan indicates that momentum favors BTC again. Since the situation in Iran has escalated, buy signals for Bitcoin have become much clearer than those for precious metals.
