The market sent a mixed signal this week. On the one hand, NVIDIA confirmed that the AI infrastructure boom is still ongoing. On the other hand, high bond yields and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reminded investors that risk appetite has its limits.
The end of the week brought a picture of a market that looks good on the surface, but underneath the situation remains tense. US stocks maintained strength, the AI sector received strong support from NVIDIA’s results, and volatility decreased. At the same time, Bitcoin did not join the rebound on Wall Street, Ethereum was again weaker, and capital flowed out of American spot ETFs into BTC for several sessions.
According to market data from May 22, at approximately 20:00 Polish time, Bitcoin cost approximately USD 76,675 and Ethereum approximately USD 2,115. This shows that BTC is still holding up much better than most of the market, but for now there is not enough momentum for a clear breakout.
The most important data from the market
At the close of the session on May 21, the S&P 500 increased by 0.2% to 7,445.72 points, the Dow Jones gained 0.6% to 50,285.66 points, the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1% to 26,293.10 points, and the Russell 2000 increased by 0.9% to 2,843.45 points. On a weekly basis through Thursday, smaller companies looked the strongest, with the Russell 2000 up 1.8% and the Dow Jones up 1.5%.
The stock market therefore remains resilient. The problem is that this resilience is no longer solely due to euphoria around the largest technology stocks. Investors are buying more broadly, but at the same time they are constantly looking at the bond market. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.57% on May 20, after rising to 4.67% the day before. This is still a level that makes it difficult to aggressively price growth assets.
NVIDIA delivered the results, but expectations are huge
The most important event of the week were NVIDIA’s results. The company reported that it achieved record revenues of USD 81.6 billion in the first quarter of 2027, representing 85% year-over-year growth. The Data Center segment generated $75.2 billion in revenue, growing 92% over the same period.
These are numbers that confirm one thing: the demand for AI infrastructure is still huge. NVIDIA is no longer just a manufacturer of graphics chips, but a central infrastructure provider for clouds, data centers and companies building solutions based on artificial intelligence.
NVIDIA expects revenues of approximately USD 91 billion in the second quarter. Importantly, the company emphasized that this forecast does not assume any revenues from Data Center compute in China. In other words: a possible unfreezing of demand from China would be an addition, not a condition for achieving growth.
The company also increased its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share and approved an additional $80 billion for share buybacks. This is an important signal because NVIDIA is starting to be treated not only as a growth company, but also as a giant generating huge cash.
Despite this, the market reaction was not euphoric. That doesn’t mean the results were disappointing. It shows more that the bar for NVIDIA and the entire AI sector is already set very high. Strong results may not be enough today if investors begin to question whether the pace of AI spending will continue in the coming quarters.
The Fed reminds: the fight against inflation is not over
The second key piece of the puzzle is the Fed. Information from the April FOMC meeting shows that Federal Reserve members still see an increased inflation risk. The Fed drew attention to, among others: to higher energy prices, tensions in the Middle East, the effects of tariffs and the risk of inflation remaining above the 2% target.
Importantly, a majority of meeting participants indicated that some tightening of policy might become appropriate if inflation continued to remain stubbornly above 2%. Many participants also wanted language suggesting a softer approach to future decisions on interest rates to be removed from the statement.
It is this element that limits the risk potential. AI can grow, companies can report great results, and Bitcoin can maintain relative strength. But with bond yields high, investors are less willing to pay any price for future growth.
Bitcoin weaker not because of the price, but because of the flows
On the crypto market, Bitcoin’s biggest problem was not the price drop itself, but the outflow of capital from spot ETFs in the US. According to Bitbo data, on May 18, ETFs recorded a total of USD 207.4 million of net outflows, on May 19, as much as USD 855.1 million of net outflows, and on May 20, another USD 70.3 million of net outflows. The largest contributor to the outflow on May 19 was IBIT from BlackRock, with an outflow of USD 773.9 million.
This is an important change from previous periods, when strong demand from ETFs helped Bitcoin stay high despite a more difficult macro environment. BTC is increasingly behaving like a large institutional asset. When flows into ETFs are positive, the market is more likely to ignore high yields. When flows reverse to the downside, the breakout becomes more difficult.
This does not mean that Bitcoin’s long-term history has been damaged. Rather, it means that in the short term the market needs new fuel. Simply “holding high” may not be enough if institutional capital temporarily reduces exposure.
RWAs remain one of the strongest topics in crypto
This shows that high interest rates are both a challenge and an opportunity for the RWA market. For Bitcoin and growth assets, high yields are often a pressure. However, they can be a sales argument for tokenized bonds and cash products, because investors gain access to interest income in the on-chain infrastructure.
This is also visible in the example of ONDO. According to market data from May 22, the token cost approximately USD 0.42, and market sources reported its clearly better weekly dynamics than in the case of Bitcoin or Ethereum.
This does not mean that each RWA token will automatically increase. The value of tokens still depends on liquidity, narrative and real utility. However, the sector itself remains one of the most logical bridges between traditional finance and blockchain.
Predictive markets: from niche to market infrastructure
A separate trend is prediction markets. Until recently, they were treated mainly as a curiosity, often bordering on speculation and betting. Today, they are increasingly perceived as infrastructure for estimating the probability of events.
Their mechanism is simple: users trade contracts on the outcome of a future event. It could be a political decision, an election result, a macroeconomic reading, a sporting event or the price of an asset. The contract price effectively becomes a market estimate of probability.
This trend is gaining importance as prediction markets begin to connect with larger liquidity pools, stablecoins, unified accounts and derivatives infrastructure. In the long term, this may lead to a “trade anything” model, where the user trades cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, derivatives and event-related risks in one environment.
However, regulations will be key here. On May 13, 2026, the CFTC issued a no-action letter regarding data reporting for event contracts, which is intended to simplify the treatment of certain fully collateralized event contracts. At the same time, the market remains under the scrutiny of regulators, especially in the context of sports, manipulation, insider trading and the border between financial instruments and gambling.
What’s next for the market?
The next sessions may depend on three things. First, on the yield of US bonds. If 10-year and 30-year yields start to decline, the market may have room to grow further. If they remain high, valuations of technology companies and crypto assets could come under pressure.
Secondly, flows into Bitcoin ETFs will be key. BTC does not need to receive huge inflows right away, but it needs at least stabilization. A series of large outflows makes it difficult to build a new growth wave.
Third, investors will evaluate whether NVIDIA’s results are evidence of a sustainable AI investment cycle or a moment when expectations for the sector became too high.
For now, the market is strong, but we cannot talk about stability. AI continues to attract capital, RWAs remain one of the most concrete applications of blockchain, and Bitcoin maintains its position as the top institutional asset in crypto. At the same time, outflows from ETFs and high bond yields show that the euphoria has a clear ceiling today.
This article is for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute investment, financial or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any digital asset. Trading cryptocurrencies and derivatives involves high risk, and the use of leverage can increase both potential profits and losses. Market data may change after publication. Each investor should independently assess the risk and make decisions according to his or her financial situation.
