I will say that if there’s one thing that always gets me excited in crypto, it’s those moments when the market looks calm and there’s something brewing underneath. I recently looked at the Ethereum data and let me tell you, something is happening. It looks like ETH may be entering the so-called “supply squeeze”, i.e. a situation in which the supply on the market is shrinking like a woolen sweater in a washing machine, and demand is waiting for the right moment to explode. This reminds me of the calm before the storm in 2020 when ETH prices suddenly skyrocketed.
Falling reserves on stock exchanges
Let’s start with the foundations, i.e. Ethereum reserves on exchanges. According to data from CryptoQuant, in October 2025, ETH reserves dropped to a record low of $60.8 billion. This is not a minor change, this is the lowest level of the year. What does this mean? Fewer tokens available on exchanges mean less supply pressure. When supply declines and demand picks up even slightly, prices tend to skyrocket. Imagine an auction where there are only a few paintings for sale and a crowd of people willing to buy them. Prices are going up because everyone wants to get their piece. This is exactly the scenario that may be brewing for ETH.
Quiet accumulation of big players
Who is behind this shrinking supply? Of course, whales, i.e. the biggest players who do not like to make noise, but love to buy on spot. Data shows that institutions and large investors are methodically accumulating ETH without flaunting it left and right. This isn’t memecoin-style FOMO where everyone shouts “to the moon”. This is a calm, refined accumulation that reminds me of the movements at the end of 2020, just before the big ETH rally. Whales don’t buy blindly, they see opportunities and get ready for something big. The question is, should we too?
Traders are back in the game
You cannot ignore what is happening on the derivatives market, because there are also interesting movements there. Aggregated Open Interest in ETH futures stabilized at $19 billion after the rapid liquidations in early October 2025. This shows that traders are back in the game, but they are doing it in moderation. Funding rates, i.e. fees for maintaining positions, are slightly positive, at 0.008%. This means that those who play for growth are paying a small premium, indicating cautious but clear optimism in the market. There is no euphoria here yet, just a subtle signal that something is wrong.
Consolidation before a breakout?
Looking at the charts, ETH is now hovering around $3,900 – $4,000 after the correction in recent weeks. An RSI of 42 is neutral, which means there is no overheating, but there is no panic either. Trading volume has dropped slightly, which is typical of a consolidation phase, but On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows quiet accumulation. This means that someone buys, even if the price stagnates. Key levels? If ETH breaks above $4,200, we could see an acceleration higher. On the other hand, a drop below 3,800 could take us to 3,600 or lower. Remember that the market loves to test investors’ patience. But when looked at as a whole, the data points to a classic setup ahead of a potential breakout.
Foundations? Why isn’t this a coincidence?
Let’s not forget about the foundations. Ethereum has been the backbone of DeFi, NFTs, and a whole host of blockchain innovations for years. In 2025, the network is faster and cheaper thanks to improvements after The Merge and further optimizations of layer 2. In addition, ETH staking continues to attract investors who lock their tokens, reducing liquid supply. When we add to this the growing institutional interest. Like the purchases of BitMine or other large players, we have a recipe for something that could shake up the market. This is not just a technical game, it is a game about the future of finance.
Looking at all this data, I can’t help but feel that something big is in the air. Personally, I believe that purchases from BitMine and other large institutions are not accidental. They don’t throw millions on the table for no reason. In my opinion, they must know something that we, small investors, don’t see yet. I believe that ETH will break out to new ATH this cycle, and not just any ATH. We are talking about a level that can exceed even USD 8,000.
This is not blind optimism, these are conclusions from data, fundamentals and how the market behaves in such moments. Of course, this is not my investment advice, but rather my private vision of what may happen. Especially since half of my Twitter feed is already predicting the end of the bull market. Crypto is a game of patience, but also intuition.
