Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 and Galaxy Digital has just revised its forecast. The end-2025 price target was cut from $185,000 to $120,000. Reason? Cryptocurrency has entered the “era of maturity”, where institutional flows and lower volatility rule. In addition, there is pressure on AI technology and record gold prices.
Galaxy predicts – whales are selling, institutions are buying
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, emphasizes that the long-term case for bitcoin “remains structurally sound,” but 2025 is a story of massive distribution by whales, absorption by ETFs and waning participation from retail investors. If BTC maintains the $100,000 level, the three-year bull market will remain intact – although the pace of growth may slow.
The forecast revision comes after one of the sharpest declines this year. More than $1.3 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated on Tuesday as the price fell from about $107,000 to below $99,000. On Wednesday, bitcoin recovered its losses, trading at $103,400.
Galaxy points to an unprecedented redistribution from long-term wallets – approximately 470,000 BTC worth roughly $50 billion. Early holders are selling in response to institutional demand. This is “institutionalizing the bitcoin supply,” but it is also creating stubborn resistance at key levels. Analysts say straight: the market is “fragile”. Outflows from ETFs, decreasing liquidity and distribution from long-term holders weigh on sentiment.
Capital is fleeing to AI and gold
Bitcoin is losing the war for attention this year. Capital flows into other narratives – primarily artificial intelligence and gold. The AI and hyperscaler boom is attracting record inflows, while gold returns as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions.
K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde calls the current phase a “key turning point” after the October liquidation that wiped out 35% of open futures positions. However, he expects that selling pressure will ease and conditions for a bullish reversal will emerge.
CryptoQuant is more pessimistic. Julio Moreno warns: If BTC fails to maintain $100,000, it could fall to around $72,000 in one or two months. Reason? Shrinking spot demand and negative ETF flows since October.
Institutions have taken the reins, but is it enough?
