The end of June brought a very interesting, but also nervous balance of forces to the markets. On the one hand, investors received strong confirmation that the artificial intelligence boom still has real foundations. Micron showed record results, the demand for HBM, DRAM and NAND memory is huge, and the largest customers are starting to secure supplies for years.
On the other hand, Bitcoin and Ethereum did not get any major relief from this market. Crypto continues to behave as a segment heavily dependent on liquidity, the dollar and expectations from the Fed. And the last few days have not been favorable.
Bitcoin and Ethereum still under pressure
Bitcoin has been staying around USD 60,000 in recent days, and at times it has gone below this psychological limit. Ethereum remains significantly weaker and oscillates around USD 1,500-1,600. These are levels that show that the crypto market has still not returned to a strong upward trend.
The most important thing, however, is not the course itself, but the context. Just a few months ago, investors hoped that weaker inflation and interest rate cuts in the US would provide fuel for risky assets. Now the narrative is different. The Fed is in no hurry to ease policy, inflation remains clearly above target, and the dollar still acts as a brake on Bitcoin, gold and some technology companies.
In such an environment, even good news from the AI sector is not enough to automatically lift the entire market.
The Fed keeps the market in suspense
On June 17, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate range at 3.50-3.75%. The decision itself was not a surprise. What was more important was the tone of communication and the data that came later.
The May PCE reading, one of the most important inflation indicators tracked by the Fed, gave the market no reason to breathe. The PCE index increased in May by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year. Core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
This is still well above the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. This means one thing for the market: the scenario of higher interest rates for longer remains realistic.
This is very important for Bitcoin. When investors see the prospect of higher rates, they are more likely to choose cash, bonds or short-term instruments with a relatively attractive rate of return. Crypto, especially altcoins, are then treated as riskier assets.
Oil may help inflation, but the Hormuz topic is not closed
Oil has also been an important topic in recent days. Raw material prices dropped significantly after information about increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a partial reduction in concerns about supplies from the Middle East. This is potentially good news for inflation, because cheaper oil may limit the pressure on fuel and transport prices in the coming months.
The problem is that the market has not yet received full confirmation of stabilization. Reuters reported that overall traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still has not returned to pre-conflict levels. Additionally, there were further attacks on ships and tensions between the US and Iran.
Therefore, the more cautious thesis is more justified today: the decline in oil prices may help in the fight against inflation, but it is not yet sufficient proof that the geopolitical risk has disappeared. For the market, this means further volatility.
Micron showed that AI is not limited to Nvidia
The strongest corporate event of the week was the results of Micron Technology. In the fiscal third quarter of 2026, the company reported $41.46 billion in revenue, $28.24 billion in GAAP net income and $25.11 in non-GAAP earnings per share. These are record data that show how much the demand for AI infrastructure affects memory manufacturers.
For a long time, the market looked mainly at Nvidia, because it became the symbol of the boom in graphics chips for data centers. But Micron’s results show that the true AI infrastructure is broader. GPUs alone are not enough. AI models also need massive amounts of fast memory, disk space, efficient data centers, energy, and advanced design of the entire technology stack.
Micron takes advantage of this shift. HBM, DRAM, NAND and SSD memories are becoming one of the key constraints in expanding AI infrastructure.
Contracts for years. This is the most important signal from Micron
The financial results themselves are important, but the issue of strategic contracts with customers is even more interesting. Micron announced that it has signed 16 strategic SCA agreements. They are usually of a multi-year nature, and some of them operate in the take-or-pay model, i.e. the customer undertakes to purchase specific volumes.
According to the company, 14 of the 16 signed contracts generate approximately USD 100 billion in cumulative revenues at minimum prices over the remaining period of the contracts. Micron also expects $22 billion in cash deposits and related financial commitments, of which approximately $18 billion is expected to be in the form of cash deposits.
This is a very important change for the memory market. Historically, this has been a highly cyclical segment. Prices rose as demand exceeded supply, then fell as production caught up with the market. Long-term contracts with customers can partially reduce this cyclicality and give the manufacturer greater revenue predictability.
For investors, this is a signal that the largest technology companies are not buying AI infrastructure on a quarter-to-quarter basis today. They are trying to secure supplies for several years.
Anthropic and Micron. AI is starting to plan the supply chain
Micron also announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic, the company behind the Claude. The agreement includes memory and storage architecture design for AI, supply and demand collaboration, the implementation of Claude at Micron, and Micron’s strategic investment in Anthropic’s funding round.
However, it is worth not adding more to this information than is officially known. The financial value of the contract and specific delivery volumes were not disclosed. The most important thing is the direction itself: the largest AI companies treat memory, storage and access to computing power as a strategic element, not a simple operational cost.
This shows that the AI boom is entering the next phase. First, the market bought the narrative about language models. Then came the GPU race. Now it is increasingly clear that memory, disks, energy and entire data centers may also be bottlenecks.
Why doesn’t this help Bitcoin?
At first glance, you might ask: if AI is performing great and technology is attracting capital again, why isn’t Bitcoin growing with the market?
The answer is quite simple. Today, capital does not flow evenly to all risky assets. Investors choose specific companies and sectors that show solid results, margins and contracts. Micron is an example of this.
Bitcoin is in a different place. There is no quarterly report, it does not show revenues and it does not sign supply contracts. Its valuation depends primarily on investor demand, liquidity, fund flows, macro sentiment and belief in the long-term role of BTC as an independent asset.
When the dollar is strong, interest rates remain high, and inflation refuses to come down to the Fed’s target, Bitcoin has a harder time in the short term. That doesn’t negate its long-term value, but it explains why the market can be weak even when some technology is doing very well.
RWA continues to grow, but tokens are not immune to declines
The RWA segment, i.e. tokenization of real assets, also looks interesting. Tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds remain one of the most important applications of blockchain beyond speculation. In an environment of high rates, products based on short-term bonds and treasury bills are naturally attractive because they allow for the transfer of part of the traditional debt market to on-chain infrastructure.
However, adoption must be separated from the price of tokens related to this sector. Just because tokenized assets are growing as a category does not automatically mean that every token with an RWA narrative will outperform the market. During the risk-off period, even good narratives can fall along with the rest of the crypto market.
This is an important lesson for investors. RWA may be one of the most important trends in blockchain, but the short-term price of tokens still depends on liquidity, sentiment and overall market health.
What is the market looking at now?
The coming weeks may be very important for Bitcoin. The next inflation data from the US will be crucial. If the decline in oil prices begins to drag down CPI and PCE, the market may begin to price in a more lenient Fed again. This would be beneficial for risky assets.
However, if core inflation continues to stay high, investors may be betting that the Fed will remain tough for longer. In such a scenario, Bitcoin may struggle to sustainably return above important technical levels.
The second element is the dollar. A strong dollar is usually bad for crypto. The third is oil and the Strait of Hormuz, because any new spike in energy prices could renew inflation fears. The fourth is the behavior of AI companies after Micron’s results. If capital continues to flow only to selected winners and not to the entire risk segment, crypto could remain under pressure.
Conclusions
The current market is fragmented. AI has strong foundations, and Micron has shown that the demand for memory and infrastructure for AI is real. Multi-year contracts with customers suggest that the largest technology players plan infrastructure development well in advance.
However, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a different arrangement. For crypto, liquidity, interest rates and investor risk appetite remain the most important. Until the Fed receives convincing evidence of a decline in inflation, the market may react nervously to each subsequent macro reading.
Therefore, the shortest summary is this: AI has received a strong argument for further growth, but Bitcoin is still waiting for better macro conditions. Without a weaker dollar, lower inflation pressure and greater risk appetite, it is difficult to expect a lasting recovery of the entire crypto market.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets and trading using leverage can lead to the loss of all your capital. Each investment decision should be made independently, taking into account your own financial situation and risk tolerance.
