- Bitcoin ended October approximately 7.3% negative in dollar terms. According to the above-mentioned reports, it was the weakest October in over a decade.
- After converting with average NBP exchange rates, the decrease amounted to approximately 5.4% in PLN. The weakening of the Polish zloty against the dollar partially offset the depreciation of BTC.
- In the years 2016-2025, after both declining Octobers, November also brought a loss. However, two cases are not enough to predict the next month’s outcome.
Why was the loss in PLN smaller?
The average NBP dollar exchange rate increased from PLN 3.8449 at the end of September to PLN 3.9251 on October 30. This is the last table before the end of the month, because October 31st fell on a Saturday.
At the BTC price of $83,556. at the end of September, such a conversion gives approximately 321.3 thousand. zloty. October closing at $77,424. corresponds to approximately 303.9 thousand zloty. The difference is approximately 5.4%.
What weighed on the market in October?
These events created the market environment, but do not allow us to attribute a specific share of the monthly decline to each of them. The mere fact that assets fell simultaneously does not prove that the decline in one asset caused the decline in the others.
What followed the declining Octobers
In the ranking for the years 2016-2025, bitcoin ended October in the red twice: in 2018 and 2025. Novembers in these years brought declines of 36.9% and 17.5%, respectively.
Bitcoin performance in November, 2016-2025.
| Year | November |
|---|---|
| 2016 | +6.6% |
| 2017 | +53.6% |
| 2018 | −36.9% |
| 2019 | −17.5% |
| 2020 | +42.8% |
| 2021 | −7.1% |
| 2022 | −16.2% |
| 2023 | +8.9% |
| 2024 | +37.4% |
| 2025 | −17.5% |
BTC/USD daily closings from the Coinbase exchange according to CryptoTicker data from November 1, 2026.
Throughout this ten-year period, November ended with an increase five times and a decrease five times. Results ranged from −36.9% to +53.6%, with an average of approximately +5.4%. Such a large dispersion and a small number of observations limit the usefulness of this list when making decisions for the next month. Longer lists, with the early years of bitcoin, give higher averages because they take into account very large increases from that period.
What does this mean to you
When assessing a portfolio, the currency in which you calculate the result is important. In October, the stronger dollar limited the decline in the value of BTC in PLN. If the Polish zloty strengthened against the dollar with the same BTC/USD change, the currency effect would work in the opposite direction.
