Key conclusions
- The largest market players, i.e. the so-called whales, have drastically reduced their bitcoin purchases, and the annual growth rate of their balance sheets has dropped to levels not seen since the 2022 bear market.
- The record increase in supply in the hands of long-term investors to 15.8 million BTC is solely due to weakness in short-term demand, not aggressive accumulation.
- The decrease in inventories on the Coinbase exchange by 900,000 BTC is a purely accounting effect, caused by these assets exceeding the 155-day holding barrier.
Why whales stopped accumulating bitcoin
At the same time, the slowdown affected the so-called dolphins, i.e. entities managing capital of 100-1000 BTC. ETFs and corporate treasuries dominate this category. The growth rate for this group peaked in October 2025 at 0.97 million BTC and has been steadily moving below the historical trend line since then.
The truth about long-term holders’ reserves
Official data shows that the volume of bitcoin held by long-term investors has reached an all-time high of 15.8 million coins. In classic market analysis, such a reading was considered an extremely optimistic signal. Currently, however, the situation is completely different.
The increase in this indicator is not the result of a well-thought-out, aggressive strategy of buyers. This is a direct result of the fact that the market lacks fresh short-term capital that would be able to absorb older coins. Investors simply have no one to sell their resources to. The supply in the hands of short-term players shrank from 6.4 million BTC in December 2025 to 4.2 million BTC.
Optical illusion on the Coinbase exchange
One specific technical event is responsible for more than 40 percent of the observed decline in short-term supply. Approximately 900,000 bitcoins placed on the Coinbase exchange changed their status from short-term to long-term investments. This shift happened automatically after the idle time of these coins exceeded the conventional limit of 155 days.
This phenomenon artificially inflated statistics regarding investors’ alleged flight towards safe, long-term savings. No new funds flowed into stock exchange trading.
The current balance of power on the charts reflects the permanent lack of demand pressure. Momentum indicators for the largest addresses have remained completely flat since February 2026. The bitcoin price, after reaching historical highs of USD 126,000 in October last year, fell to USD 73,400. The position of the largest capital holders has permanently changed from aggressive asset accumulation to a neutral position, with a clear tendency to slowly distribute their coins.
