- Bitcoin futures funding rates have been negative for 67 straight days – the longest streak in more than a decade, according to data from CoinDesk and K33 Research.
- Bitcoin simultaneously broke two key acquisition cost levels: True Market Mean at approximately $78,200 and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at approximately $79,100 – both signals have historically preceded further increases.
- Market makers are positioned “short gamma” around $82,000, which means their own hedges add buying pressure as the price rises.
- The previous two episodes of record negative funding rates ended in a short squeeze – a surge forced by the liquidation of short positions.
Bitcoin has been shorted at record levels for a decade. And yet it continues to grow for weeks.
This is exactly the type of contradiction that is worth understanding before you make any decision regarding your portfolio.
BTC futures funding rates have been negative for 67 consecutive days. The funding rate, a small fee that traders pay to maintain an open leveraged position on perpetual contracts, is negative when more capital is betting on declines than on increases. The more negative it is, the stronger the market consensus that the price will go down. For two months, the market was convinced that BTC would fall.
BTC during this time grew from approximately USD 63,000 to approximately USD 80,000.
Signal one: shorts are paying for the privilege of hitting bottom
Funding rates have been negative for most of the last three months, which has meant there has been extraordinary demand for short positions on Bitcoin in the futures market. In recent days, these rates have turned from negative to neutral – and that is the signal.
Bitfinex analysts explain the mechanism directly: “A reversal to neutral does not invalidate the carry trade, it indicates that shorts paying for this privilege are no longer present on a large scale. Either rates will return to negative as new ETF capital replies this position, or the squeeze continues to run.”
The carry trade that Bitfinex is talking about is a strategy where investors buy BTC through spot ETFs and at the same time short futures contracts, making money on the difference in funding rates. In other words, some of the negative financing rates resulted not from the belief in declines, but from the mechanical arbitrage strategy of large institutions. When this strategy loses profitability, short pressure drops – and there is room for growth.
Second signal: BTC has exceeded the levels that really matter
Glassnode, one of the leading companies analyzing blockchain data, tracks two levels that analysts believe best describe market sentiment.
The first is the True Market Mean, i.e. the average purchase price of all active bitcoins, excluding coins that have been motionless for over five years. It is approximately USD 78,200. The second is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which is the average purchase price of bitcoins purchased in the last six months. It is approximately USD 79,100. When the spot price is below both of these levels, most active investors are underwater – which creates selling pressure and panic. When it is above, most are in the positive and the market is gaining strength.
BTC is above both of these levels simultaneously today.
Glassnode comments: “If price remained above these levels for the next week, the deep end that lasted from early February 2026 to now would be one of the shortest such episodes in Bitcoin’s history.” The next key resistance is the Active Realized Price at around $85,200 – and that’s where the market is likely headed.
Signal three: market makers are unintentionally adding fuel to growth
The third signal is the most technical, but worth explaining because it works like a self-propelling mechanism.
Market makers, i.e. companies providing liquidity on stock exchanges, try to be neutral – they do not place directional bets, they only make money on spreads. But to remain neutral in calls and puts, they must constantly hedge their portfolios. When BTC increases, they have to buy more BTC to balance their positions. This adds buying pressure – which drives up the price – which requires further hedging – which drives up the price again.
Glassnode analysts describe this as “short gamma”: market makers are positioned in a way that forces them to buy when the price rises and sell when it falls. Around $82,000 this concentration is particularly high. If BTC breaks this level convincingly, mechanical buying by market makers could accelerate the move well above this level.
What does this mean in practice and where is the risk?
These three signals converge at the same time. This is rare. The previous two episodes of record negative funding rates in BTC history – at the post-FTX bottom in 2022 and at the cycle bottom in 2015 – ended with sharp increases after these rates were reversed.
The statistical sample of two cases is small. It’s a fair caveat and worth keeping in mind. However, I believe that the mechanism here is clearer than in most technical formations. Crowded shorting, i.e. a situation where the market is uniformly and tightly shorted, creates a specific physical mechanism: when the price starts to rise, leveraged shorts are forced to close their positions with a loss limit, which in itself is a buying and pushes the price further.
The risk is real. BTC tested the 200-day moving average at around $83,000 and rejected it several times. Geopolitics around the Strait of Hormuz could change sentiment at any time. Employment data in the US, better than expected, reduces the chances of the Fed cutting rates. Any of these factors can be a spark for good instead of bad.
But if you’re asking what the data says – three independent signals show the same thing. The market is ready to move up. When and if this move will happen, no signal will tell you with certainty.
