The war in the Middle East and attacks on oil infrastructure caused a shock in traditional markets, pushing oil prices to multi-month highs.
Despite the specter of persistent inflation and delayed U.S. interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is showing remarkable resilience and may be poised for near-term gains.
The war in the Middle East is creating new realities on raw material markets
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil rose to over USD 107 amid reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on merchant ships.
The situation in the international arena is also complicated by the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran.
The blocking of a key transport route in the Persian Gulf puts enormous pressure on supply chains, while forcing some local producers to reduce production due to capacity problems.
The International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize the situation.
However, the data shows that investors remain slightly afraid of the future.
The maximum rate of release of these reserves is estimated at 2 million barrels per day, which means that it will take several dozen weeks to balance the supply. As a result, buyers are willing to pay huge premiums for immediate supplies of raw materials, expecting the deficit to continue in the coming months.
The specter of inflation postpones the decisions of the American central bank
More expensive crude oil is a direct pro-inflationary impulse that drives up treasury bond yields and drastically changes expectations for monetary policy. Current market valuations suggest that we will see just one rate cut in 2026, most likely at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
In the longer term, high energy costs could have a deflationary effect, reducing consumer spending and slowing the economy. Such a scenario would force the US central bank to loosen its monetary policy more aggressively in early 2027.
Investors are now closely awaiting the FOMC meeting scheduled for March 18, which could provide key clues about the Fed’s next steps.
Cryptocurrencies are surprisingly resistant to macroeconomic pressures
Despite the unfavorable macroeconomic environment and growing risk aversion, the crypto market is doing extremely well. Bitcoin remains strong, supported by strong capital inflows into ETFs over the past two weeks.
Additionally, the Coinbase Premium indicator remains positive, clearly signaling strong demand from investors in the United States compared to the rest of the world. Historically, this balance of power often heralded positive price movements.
Market optimism is intensified by deeply negative financing rates on the futures market.
The price of the largest cryptocurrency is currently consolidating in the zone of USD 70,000 – USD 74,000.
A break through the $74,000 level could pave the way for a quick relief rally towards $80,000 and ultimately even to the zone between $86,000 and $95,000, where there is a strong buildup of historical resistance marking a potential local top.
While short-term forecasts offer hope for a dynamic rebound, the broader macroeconomic picture remains a challenge for Bitcoin.
Long-term, after possibly exhausting its current upside potential, the crypto market could ultimately find a bottom in this bear market somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000 in the coming months.
The article does not constitute investment advice.
