In a post on Beautiful Crypto today, Daniel Mark Harrison explored an alternate point of view for a crypto bull market hypothesis. His view consists of beginning with the following observations:
- Ethereum powers a network on which by far the majority of smart contracts are run.
- Smart contracts are the basis for superior software evolution of the Blockchain.
- There is no more superior software evolution of Blockchain protocol that we know of than smart contracts yet
- Every other smart contract-based Blockchain is a version / variation of Ethereum meaning that for most things, Ethereum can perform the same tasks equally well as its competitors
- Of the top 10 coins on CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, Tether and XRP are all shitcoins. This means they are coins without any utility that advances software development whatsoever. TRX, EOS and Bitcoin Cash are becoming unnecessary competitors to Ethereum.
- Stellar is the only alternative to Ethereum in the Top 10 coins that performs a variety of significantly different functions to Ethereum and that may therefore progress software development meaningfully further as far as Blockchain is concerned.
- Of all the other coins in the market right now, DASH is the only one that meaningfully offers a third form of differentiation (masternode staking); all other POS staking coins are copies (needless competitors) of DASH
- Combined ETH, XLM, DASH represent $19 billion, or 14% of the entire market value
Once such observations are taken into account, writes DMH, then we can consider the old citation that 80% of one’s business comes from just 20% of one’s customers given that ETH, XLM and DASH all amount to 15% of the cryptocurrency market which he does not find coincidental only (he ascribes a 5% market share to unique tokens and other alts).
Considering the possibility that these coins may constitute 80% of the next bull market in crypto then given that they are engaged in the production of progressive software innovations for Blockchain where no other projects presently are, explains DMH, that would make all three digital assets about 5,000% higher in value than they are today. As a result, ETH could rise to about $7,500, XLM to about $6 and DASH to about $5,000, he writes.
By comparison, if the same dollar value of gains is ascribed to Bitcoin, which according to DMH “has zero progressive / evolving software utility associated with it” then the increase in the Bitcoin price would be by comparison around 4-5x smaller in magnitude, at just 1,200%.
The post raises an interesting point about whether Bitcoin has not finally reached a zenith point and raises questions about a potential decoupling of Ethereum, the smart coin, and Bitcoin, the original crypto, although DMH stops short of arriving at this conclusion in his post.